RAAB: Sage says
rate of infection (r value) is now below 1 in the community
Each person infected, therefore, now infecting less than one other person
But says SAGE says any change to social distancing now risks "significant increase" in virus transmission
rate of infection (r value) is now below 1 in the community
Each person infected, therefore, now infecting less than one other person
But says SAGE says any change to social distancing now risks "significant increase" in virus transmission
Interesting that Raab is now talking about avoiding a "second peak", tacitly suggesting that we've already had the first, as data seems to be suggesting
Raab confirms that lockdown must continue "for at least the next three weeks"
Raab sets out exit criteria:
1) Confident that NHS can continue to provide critical care
2) sustained and consistent fall in death rates
3) reliable data from SAGE that rate of infection is decreasing
4) testing/PPE sorted
5) confident that relaxation doesn't yield second peak
1) Confident that NHS can continue to provide critical care
2) sustained and consistent fall in death rates
3) reliable data from SAGE that rate of infection is decreasing
4) testing/PPE sorted
5) confident that relaxation doesn't yield second peak
that fifth element is the one which is most vague, wonder if govt can ever be confident that a second peak won't come unless we have a vaccine or mega testing capacity for contact tracing
RAAB: "It's been an incredible national team effort. Let's not give coronavirus a second chance."
it was the moment where R fell below 1 that Denmark/Norway started to talk about relaxation. According to SAGE it looks as if that's where we are now at in the community. UK choosing to press on - perhaps data not quite there, perhaps they want to drive down further.
