Thread by @robpowellnews

The Sunday Times reporting on PPE/testing fits with serious questions being raised by NHS Providers & private/public labs on govt response. One thing I can't quite square though is the allegation that the PM & ministers flagrantly ignored dire early warnings from scientists. 1/

The ST reports that as early as 17/01-22/01 Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College, London put forward analysis suggesting #covid19 was highly infectious & a lock down would be needed to cut the transmission rate by 60% 2/

Prof Ferguson sits on NERVTAG - which feeds into SAGE & advises govt. Minutes from a 21/01 NERVTAG meeting which Ferguson attended noted person to person transmission was happening in China but ultimately endorsed the PHE view that risk to UK was low and impact was moderate 👇 3/

The ST points out that 190,000 people flew into the UK from Wuhan between Jan & March. But 21/01 NERVTAG minutes conclude that port screening for those arriving from the region was not advised, with Ferguson saying effectiveness of UK port screening would be low 4/

The ST reports that by 31/01 scientists were telling NERVTAG & the govt that the outbreak could be as bad as Ferguson's worst estimates. But in a NERVTAG meeting on 03/02 the group only recommended stepping up messaging around hand washing 5/

As the ST reports, on 21/02 NERVTAG concluded that the risk level should not be upped from moderate. The minutes note that some members, including John Edmunds, disagreed. But overall, the group recommended no change. 6/

So there was disagreement. But overall, for most of Feb, this advisory group of scientists did not seem too panicked. This all begs the question that if scientists, including Neil Ferguson, were issuing dire warnings, why didn't any of these make it into the NERVTAG meetings? 7/

None of this is intended to undermine the ST. But it feels incomplete. Did ministers ignore warnings? Or did scientific advisers collectively fail to sound the alarm? Both could be true (or false). This Reuters piece paints a different picture to ST👇 8/

reuters.com/article/us-hea…

As an aside, NERVTAG minutes from a June 2019 meeting also contain these prescient points about the need to add gowns to the pandemic stockpile 👇 9/

All the NERVTAG minutes and reports are here if anyone wants to take a look...

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app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixk…