Thread by @GrantRants

Good afternoon, Niagara. I am pouring into the daily #COVID19 for the region, and two things pop out today. First, there is only one new confirmed case. Second, for the first time, there is a noticeable decline in the number active cases: 204 today, down seven from yesterday.

These numbers fit a trend that has been growing for over a week: as the number of new cases in LTC homes are exhausted, we would see the actual level of community spread, which @mustafahirji has said would be in the single digits daily.

The decline in the number of active cases is also important. It is a result of a rise in resolved cases, the limited growth of new cases, and an additional death.
It is the first time since we started tracking the data that a decline in active cases has happened.

An IMPORTANT caveat: Health authorities, including @mustafahirji, warn that this progress is a result of the public taking #COVID19 controls seriously. A stumble now would undo this progress quickly.

What to watch for now is if this trend is sustained over the next two weeks at least. If it does, and the provincial trends follow suit, then things may start to change.

Another important caveat: So far, 34 Niagara residents with #COVID19 have died since March 13. For context, the 2011 C-diff outbreaks in area hospitals claimed 37 lives over several months. The impact of this virus on most vulnerable is far more pronounced. Don't forget that.

Here is today's Niagara #COVID19 curve.
-30-

COVID-19 in Niagara-Curve public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

Ps. Given that @NRPublicHealth is testing all untested residents of LTC homes with outbreaks, the number of new cases may raise again tomorrow as test results come in.
What to watch for now is if trend continues over the next couple of weeks.