Thread by @GrantRants

Good morning Niagara. I just wanted to chat a bit about #COVID19, local data and analytics we have been publishing so you can get a picture of what the illness is doing in our community. (Thread)

So this is the graph you will have seen on our website and in our print editions over the last two weeks. It gets updated daily as new #COVID19 for Niagara is available.

COVID-19 in Niagara public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h

The reason we began to present this data to you is because a) no public health authority was doing it and b) given the seriousness of the pandemic, it's important you have a clear picture of what is happening and what is not.

Before we go forward, an important caveat. Because @NRPublicHealth is not yet reporting local #COVID19 related deaths, our data itself could be missing information. Which would impact the total number of active cases vs total number of cases overall, which I will get into.

This data is mostly pulled from @NRPublicHealth and some stats - like hospitalized deaths - from @niagarahealth .

So, this graph first shows you TOTAL CASES. This is every recorded case of #COVID19 infect since the first case was found in Niagara on March 13. This is the red line that has the kind of pandemic curve you have seen from many places.

COVID-19 in Niagara public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…

It is an important metric, but does not show you what is happening now. It is a historical total and when you see that number climb, that is the result of positive lab tests from days or even weeks ago, with the point of infection being sometime before that.

The bottom, purple line represents known deaths. This is a critical point for two reasons. 1) We need to know how serious #COVID19 and that it can, in fact, kill. and 2) All these stats are not just numbers. Each number represents a real person in our community, your neighbours.

Every person infected, every senior stuck in isolation in a retirement residence has family and friends. Numbers are not just numbers in a pandemic. And we need to know the toll it takes on our community, including those we have lost.

The other two lines: The yellow line representing active cases and the green line for resolved cases - are two lines you really want to watch as the pandemic evolves.

COVID-19 in Niagara

Resolved cases are cases where a patient has fully recovered and is not infectious. For most people that now means being symptom free for 14 days. For health care workers it means having two negative tests for #COVID19 plus being symptom free.

Active cases is determined (with the caveat noted above) by subtracting the number of deaths and resolved cases from the total number. These are the known case of people currently recovering from #COVID19 in Niagara.

When you look at pandemic data these are two data points that you should watch. As we climb out of the #COVID19 hole, the number of active cases will round off, flatten and decline. Resolved cases slowly - much slower than new infections at first - starts its own curve.

The speed of the decline of active cases depends on if we are following social distancing and hygenie rules. It is also impacted by treatments and vaccines (of which there are presently none for #COVID19, making infection control so critically important. #StayHomeNiagara)

The rise of resolved cases reflects the number of people who were sick and have recovered. Again, treatments or vaccines would also impact this number, but there aren't any yet so #StayHomeNiagara

Now, as an aside, left to its own devices, a pandemic eventually runs out of gas. After enough people are infected and recover a population gets "herd immunity" like we have for measles due to vaccines. Then the resolved number shoots up because the virus has no place to go. BUT

This is a terrible way to fight a pandemic. It would mean thousands and thousands of people sick, even more dead and the economy in ruins. Nature is no respector of persons. So again, #StayHomeNiagara.

So why watch these to lines of active vs. resolved cases? Because eventually - and we are not close yet - as the active line dips and the resolved line rises, they will reach a point when they cross. And that will be a very important moment.

When those lines cross it is an indication (
@mustafahirji
tells me this is a "rough" indication because new waves of infection are certainly possible) that we can see the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel.

Right now, those lines appear to be curling toward each other and @mustafahirji has send in the next week we may see the impact of infection control measures. If that happens, the active case number should continue that rounding trend. BUT...

This would be a long term trend. Meaning even if we start to see the infection rate drop, active cases fall and resolve cases rise, if folk get lax in infection control (remember there is no vaccine presently) that could contribute to those lines going in the opposite direction.

In short, getting complacent about infection control, would undo the process made to date, and the lines that are starting to curl together would being to move apart.

We are pulling this data together daily and working hard to ensure it is as accurate we can make it so that you can make some sense of this big, frightening thing we are in the midst of.

The predictive models released yesterday showed that infection control has prevented more than 4,000 deaths but still suggests we could lose another 1,600 people by the end of the month. It's frightening. The best way to manage that fright and risk is by knowing what is happening

Listen to @Cmdr_Hadfield, who talks about how important it is to understand the risk, use credible sources and then you can make good decisions:

An Astronaut's Guide to Self Isolation

Certainly, we are not out of the woods yet. There are no predictive models on how many local folk may die. But the newsteam at the Niagara Dailies (@StCatStandard @WellandTribune @NiaFallsReview) will be with you every step of the way, keeping you informed.

Finally, just a note on the kind words we have been receiving from readers since this all began. Thank you so much. Covering this is an exhausting and difficult experience for reporters who really have little time to take a break from it. BUT...

Beyond the frontier of the virtual newsrooms are the doctors, nurses, PSWs, janitors and other folk on the real frontline of #COVID19. We'll be telling more of their stories in the coming weeks, but if journalists are stressed, imagine what it is like for health care staff!

I hope this helps a bit. If you have questions about the data, feel free to ask. As we get more detailed information, that data set will change and I will update you to those changes as they happen.
In the meantime, be safe out there, folks.
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