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Latest PER CAPITA #COVID19 death toll trajectories reveal some striking patterns:
- Swedish deaths trajectory now steeper per head, than France’s (NB I have now removed non-hospital deaths from French line)
- UK still in line with Italy
- Irish trajectory slightly steeper than US
To see where we are right now, a chart of #COVID19 daily deaths (7day avg).
- UK line flattened but not quite falling
- US line no longer climbing; poss now at peak
- Italy/Spain/France dropping lower
- Sweden still rising, but from lower base
- Japanese deaths climbing fast
I'm no longer updating these #COVID19 charts daily, but thanks to the wonders of technology (and the handiwork of @spencer_lyon) there is an AUTOUPDATING per capita chart here (NB this is ECDC data so French line includes non-hospital deaths) nuggetcharts.com/chart/822
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
A 🧵 abt the question we're going to have to confront at some point but no one wants to talk about: how on earth are we going to pay for the economic response to #COVID19? We are stacking up war-time levels of public debt RIGHT NOW that will define economics for decades...
The story starts with this chart. The bar on the far right here is how much the government is planning to issue in debt this year. More than any other year in history. And note the bottom bit is only four months' worth of debt. There's a v v high chance the bar gets a LOT higher
You thought the cost of the financial crisis was high? You thought austerity was bad? We will end #COVID19 with a HIGHER level of debt. This is depressing & unpalatable, esp for countries like UK which has literally just emerged from a decade of austerity. But there we have it.
Read 15 tweets
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
Why are Britain's banks and officials blaming EU State Aid rules for impeding Britain's economic response to #COVID19, and what does it tell you about the way this country works? A short thread, based on my @thetimes column this morning thetimes.co.uk/article/28d45b…
Govt has various legs to its #COVID19 economic rescue. A crucial part is the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS).
So far £1.1bn has been lent; 6,016 loans.
In Germany about seven times that has already been lent to small biz
In Switz there have been 100k loans
One early problem with CBILS was that businesses were calling up for emergency support but banks were asking them to fill in forms for regular loans. The kinds with high int rates & where you need to stake your home as collateral. It was v difficult to actually get a CBIL
Read 13 tweets
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Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
Confirmation via @DHSCgovuk: UK #COVID19 death toll has surpassed 10k, hitting 10,612.
Updated chart of UK trajectory 👇
- UK still hugging Italian line. May overtake it in coming days, indicating comparatively more severe outbreak
- NB weekend figs sometimes an understatement
The UK #COVID19 figs are dismaying.
These are not datapoints but families losing loved ones.
Lesson from other countries: UK trajectory need not have looked like this.
Small piece of good news: a week ago deaths were doubling every three days. Now they're doubling every six days.
Wondering why my #COVID19 charts have that odd logarithmic axis? Why they include China? Why they don't have a population adjusted chart or indeed what that would look like? Answers to those questions and more here: edmundconway.com/2020/04/covid-…
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