Thread by @danbouzu

@iNabmahmoud Coronavirus may kill Thousands in Nigeria

When I was writing my PhD thesis on Geographical Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Kano State, I adapted two models with some sorts of modification, that is, the Risk Cells and Health Field Models. Behold!

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@iNabmahmoud Age of Coronavirus Deaths as provided by New York City Health as of April 14:

[Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and gastrointestinal/Liver Disease]

@iNabmahmoud Using the same models on #Covid19 in Nigeria, I personally made the following conclusions:

1. As the NCDC is busy testing only THREE categories of people in the country, that is:

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@iNabmahmoud a) Contacts of confirmed cases;
b) Residents in areas of high prevalence of #COVID_19; and
c) Recent returnees from abroad,
the virus must be surely spreading among the majority of Nigerian citizens who are very poor and living in high congested ghettos across the country.

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@iNabmahmoud 2. The ignorance, poverty & religious malpractice among the poor Nigerians living in ghettos, alongside the poor healthcare system are among the reasons that Nigeria is going to experience 1000s of unreported covid19 cases, both active and closed ones, + several deaths.

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@iNabmahmoud 3. The age distribution of Nigerians is indifferent from that of other poor/less developed countries of the world, infact, an estimated 92% Nigerians are below the age 55,thus a fat number of them is likely to contract the disease with only a mild common cold-like symptoms.

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@iNabmahmoud ...Common cold-like symptoms that poverty is surely going to restrict them from seeking healthcare in formal healthcare center.

4. And the biggest of all questions is:

DO WE EVEN HAVE THE NEEDED HEALCARE SYSTEM IN NIGERIA?

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@iNabmahmoud I. Under normal circumstance, a person that got infected with coronavirus such as MERS-CoV will automatically develop immunity immediately his body get rid of the acute disease causing virus. But as far a Covid-19 causing SERS-CoV2 is concern...

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@iNabmahmoud ...there are a number of studies that disclosed that those who have been infected with the new virus are still at risk of re-infection after they recovered from the previous infection, that means they can still get sick from it.

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@iNabmahmoud 2. Thus, I ask these TWO questions as follows:

a) Does that means our bodies are only developing a temporary/short-term immunity for the new virus or what exactly is going on?

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@iNabmahmoud b) Or is it that the virus is continuously mutating so that when a former covid-19 patient contract the virus again, his body will not identify it as a similar virus to the previous one, so, the body has to produce different set of antibodies to fight it...?

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@iNabmahmoud ..making the already existing antibodies useless, since antibodies are always specific to antigens?

3. Anyway, such questions can only be answered by clinicians from @NCDCgov.@EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria. But I being a Geographical Epidemiologist, all I can say for now is:

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@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria a) Whether Covid-19 has come to go or to stay, mankind is going to survive it through what Charles Darwin called 'The Survival of the Fittest'. As you you can vividly see that the unfit ones are already dying in tens of thousands by day, some knowingly, some unknowingly.

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@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria b) Behold! The virus should be told that, it's not the only one that can mutate. Humans too can also be mutants and adapt it.

4. It's important to recall that when almost 80% of native Americans died as a result of the arrivals of European colonialists and African slaves..

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@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria ..and afrucan slaves where the 'leading cause' of their deaths was known to be 'Virgin Soil Epidemic'. That means, the guests came with new diseases such as smallpox, yellow fever, measles, flu and malaria among others to the native American hosts.

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@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria And since the hosts' systems have never had any experience of such diseases, then their bodies are immunologically highly vulnerable to the new diseases at first contact. Moreover, whenever there are more than one infections, the vulnerability increases.

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@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria But yet those that are genotypically and phenotypically fit enough were able to survive, and there generations live to this day, in either their pure form as unmixed Amerindians, or in mixed forms such as mestizos, castizos, etc.

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@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria 4. As for the current pandemic, thank God the Covid-19 causing SERS-CoV2 is already weak on young and healthy human systems at arrival.

Conclusion: #COVID19Nigeria is no more than The Survival of the Fittest.

Thank you for your time.

The end.

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Las Danbouzu, PhD, MANG.

@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria Dear @threadreaderapp, kindly unroll this thread. Thank you.

@iNabmahmoud @NCDCgov @EpidAlert @Fmohnigeria My name is @danbouzu, kindly show some appreciation by a RETWEET of my song. Thank you.

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@iNabmahmoud My #lockdownhustle is YouTube money. Kindly show some appreciation by a RETWEET of my song. Thank you.

WAQAR HARBA QAFA NA HARBA (Calm Down Official Video)

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