This is my last thread for @AfghanHistorian on the events of January-April 1992 which led to the collapse of the Communist State in #Afghanistan. I will end with some concluding thoughts and questions for further studies.
25 April: after a month of negotiations btw Tanzim leaders, Peshawar Accord was reached. It agreed 4 d formation of d Transition Council (Shura-i Intiqali) for 2 months led by Prof. Mojaddadi (comprised of 10 nominees of tanzims, 10 ulama,& 30 field com.) (TS)
Followed by Prof. Rabbani as President & Head of Shura-i Qiyadi (Leadership Council) for a further 4 months. This is then followed by a Shura-i Ahl-e Hal va Aqd (Council of Supreme Popular Settlement) 2 form an Interim Govt which would organize elections after 18 months (TS)
The position of PM went 2 Hekmatyar or his nominee, Defense 2 Jamiat, & Foreign Affairs 2 Gailani’s tanzim. Representatives of both Hizb & Wahdat walked out of d final meeting arguing that they had been underrepresented. Hekmatyar refused the offer of the PM for his party (TS)
25 April: Hekmatyar forces captured Arg, Shah Shaheed, Chaman Huzuri & other locations. His forces were aiming to 2 take Radio and TV station & announce his control–but were pushed back by Dostum forces led by Gen. Rozi in Ariana Sq (TS)
Hekmatyar claimed control of Kabul, denouncing the new Peshawar-agreed administration as ‘communist’. He warned that he would shoot Prof. Mujaddadi’s plane down if they come to Kabul. Prof. Mujaddadi had to come by road via Jalalabad (TS)
25-27 April fighting in Kabul: Gen. Azimi along wt Masoud, Dostum, Wahdat and Harakat forces attack Hekmatyar forces in d city and successfully drove out Hizb from d city (TS)
Fate of key PDPA members
Mazdak& his brother Yar Mohammad tried 2 escape by air. Mazdak was recognised & handed over 2 Kabul Garrison.
Sulaiman Laeq escapes 2 Pakistan.
Abdul Wakil was helped by Gailani;escaped 2 Delhi.
Watanjar,Pakteen&Mangal escape & join Hikmatyar (TS)
Mazdak& his brother Yar Mohammad tried 2 escape by air. Mazdak was recognised & handed over 2 Kabul Garrison.
Sulaiman Laeq escapes 2 Pakistan.
Abdul Wakil was helped by Gailani;escaped 2 Delhi.
Watanjar,Pakteen&Mangal escape & join Hikmatyar (TS)
Gen. Rafi sought refuge wt Mullah Izzat then Pakistan
Mahmud Baryalai stays in Kabul
Babrak Karmal (in Kabul then Hairatan)
Sultan Ali Kishtmand (lived in Moscow&London)
Azimi&Ulumi stayed in Kabul; then Moscow
Gen. Yaqobi assassinated
Anahita Ratebzad escaped 2 India (TS)
Mahmud Baryalai stays in Kabul
Babrak Karmal (in Kabul then Hairatan)
Sultan Ali Kishtmand (lived in Moscow&London)
Azimi&Ulumi stayed in Kabul; then Moscow
Gen. Yaqobi assassinated
Anahita Ratebzad escaped 2 India (TS)
To conclude: PDPA suffered immensely from its own elite disunity&factional infighting which contributed 2 its downfall, along wt international factors including d Soviet exit & failure of Geneva Accord, stronger insurgency, political & ethnic tensions within PDPA and more(TS)
The state provided d political framework 4 factional and sub-network infighting, where each faction was using state coercion and violent capacities 2 eliminate their rivals. Hatred among political elites was so strong that 3 of PDPA presidents were killed by rival members (TS)
Violence emerged as d determining currency 2 dominate the state. Of 62 army generals from Monarchy regime, 60 were killed, removed or forced to retire (Bradsher). Out of 18,000 members of d party & 28,000 joined in 1979, half had died or had been purged by 1989 (Giustozzi). (TS)
Key Questions that need further study: 1) Was there a collision between Pro-Karmal generals & Politburo members and Gen. Dostum in the North with d intention of setting up a northern safe zone = north vs south divide? Need empirical data. (TS)
What was the content of Jabal-u-Saraj Agreement which became the basis for distrust between Jamiat, Dostum and Wahdat tanzims? (RS)
What are the lessons learned from the PDPA elite disunity, ethnic division, unfair "nationality" policies, militia policies, and Soviet exit for us today in Afghanistan? (TS)
Why did three main Mujaheddin political settlements (Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi) fail? What can we learn from these failed elite settlements for the ongoing attempt 2 reach a political settlement with the TB? (TS)
Why did the UN evacuation plan for Dr. Najib fail on 16 April? No one from the UN side, including Mr. Botsali who is currently ambassador of OIC has provided an explanation? Did the UN come up wt other efforts to evacuate Dr. Najib from Kabul? (TS)
