Absent from the debates around the Trump administration's plans to become a JCPOA participant after it officially terminated its participation in May 2018, this time to terminate the JCPOA once and for all, misses an important point: Iran's reaction [Thread] 👇🧵
2| I put this question to @araghchi at Moscow Nonproliferation Conference back in Nov. He stated clearly that re-designating Iran under UN Charter's Chapter VII as a "threat to international peace and security" will lead Iran to revise its nuclear doctrine ifpnews.com/return-of-un-s…
3| That means only one thing: withdrawing not just from the JCPOA, but also from the NPT altogether. Some think this is a bluff as it would undermine Iran's long-held position that it is not seeking nuclear weapons. They are wrong...
financialtribune.com/articles/natio…
financialtribune.com/articles/natio…
4| This is because Iran can maintain the NPT's safeguards' inspections even after resorting to the treaty's Article X to withdraw. That is very different path from the one that North Korea chose. It will raise the stakes and give Iran immediate leverage.
5| It can also jeopardize Trump's re-election, adding an international nonproliferation crisis to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, strengthening Trump's critics in accusing him of mismanaging both. His legacy would be not a stronger deal, but an unleashed Iranian nuke program.
6| And all of this for what benefits? Iran is currently exporting small arms, missiles and drones to its regional allies even with the arms embargo in place. Russia & China have also said they would not recognize the restoration of the embargo & likely sell arms to Iran anyways.
7|7 So as I've said before this is another example of why the administration’s Iran policy is not a strategy. It is a pressure tactic wrapped in bellicosity folded inside a chimera.
