It would be a risky gambit if France/Germany/UK were to trigger the #IranDeal's Dispute Resolution Mechanism (DRM). Here's why [Thread]:
2| First question: What's the DRM?
Under JCPOA Article 36, a party to the deal can claim significant non-compliance by another party. Claim goes to Joint Commission, ministerial level/3-person advisory board, and eventually to UNSC if not resolved.
bit.ly/2tZ8jVG
Under JCPOA Article 36, a party to the deal can claim significant non-compliance by another party. Claim goes to Joint Commission, ministerial level/3-person advisory board, and eventually to UNSC if not resolved.
bit.ly/2tZ8jVG
3| Article 36 was devised to tackle technical breaches, not a political crisis prompted by U.S. exit & Article 37 is a poison pill. But duration of each stage in the process can be extended by mutual consent, though the end state of UNSC sanx sanpback could happen within 65 days.
4| Iran announced policy of incremental JCPOA breaches in May 2019 after the U.S. doubled down on sanctions policy by cancelling waivers on oil sales and the P4+1 failed to deliver the economic benefits the deal promises. Since then, Iran has taken 5 steps in reducing compliance.
5| Iran claims that the E3 have no legal basis for triggering DRM, arguing that it already exhausted the process. Their case is that with E3 delivering less than envisioned, they can deliver less than required. But this isn't a legal issue. It's political.
6| China and Russia have suggested they won't recognize reimposition of UN sanctions if it gets to that. So, UNSC could see deepening fissures over this issue. Iran has warned that Ch. 7 sanctions will compel it to withdraw not just from the JCPOA, but from the NPT.
7| UN sanx snapback could exhaust whatever leverage Europe retains without producing any gains; and closing the door on Europe's ability to even mediate tensions between Iran & the US. It's also unlikely to add much more economic pressure on Iran.
8| But it could help achieve what the US and its allies have been seeking, which is to prevent the UN arms embargo from being lifted in October. That objective facilitated by European countries who continue to sell arm to Iran's neighbors will sour relations for years to come.
9|9 Thus by triggering the DRM the E3 might provoke a crisis that they claim they are trying to prevent unless the time and space created by intense diplomatic engagement is used to provide Iran with some economic reprieve as means of returning it into JCPOA compliance.
