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What is the 'true' infection-fatality rate of #COVID19?

We don't know. But I spent my weekend doing a systematic review/meta-analysis to get a reasonable estimate

medium.com/@gidmk/what-is…
The overall figure, based on 13 published estimates from a bunch of different places, is 0.79% (0.53-1.05%), which is actually a bit higher than I was expecting
Note: this is very much a LIVING DOCUMENT

I may have made mistakes. I probably have. Point them out and let's work on better estimates together
And thanks to @jamesheathers, who suggested this excellent plan
Also, worth noting that this isn't a brilliant estimate because there aren't that many studies and they are VERY heterogeneous

Ideally I'd like to stratify by age and region, but that's gonna take more data!
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
Lots of serology happening around the world, so I thought I'd do a thread collating some of the infection-fatality estimates for #COVID19 1/n
2/n INFECTION-fatality rate (IFR) is the rate at which people die when they get the disease

Unlike CASE-fatality rate (CFR), this includes people who are not tested (i.e. asymptomatic cases) and will be lower, generally
3/n Early infection-fatality estimates from China using a sample including 80% mild/asymptomatic cases indicated an IFR of 0.9%
Read 15 tweets
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
NEJM, arguably the biggest medical journal in the world, has just published this study stating that "remdesivir may have clinical benefit in patients with severe Covid-19"

A quick skim says to me that the paper is...bad

Let's do a live twitter critical appraisal and see! 1/n
Ok, first things first - when was the study submitted?

NEJM doesn't publish this in an easily findable format, but the PROTOCOL for the study was written on the 21/03, and based on the author's disclosures it was submitted around the 02/04

Published 10/04. Quick turnaround!
Ok then, who funded this massive, viral (excuse the pun) study?

Gilead! A medical company who makes the drug - remdesivir - that was studied
Read 31 tweets
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
So, yet again we have a wild misrepresentation of "herd immunity" as a solution to the coronavirus pandemic

This is simply not the case. If herd immunity comes into play, we will have already seen one of our worst-case scenarios played out in real life 1/n
2/ Herd immunity is a simple concept

It simply defines the situation where enough people are immune to a disease that even if people do get sick, they can't spread the infection
3/ The Guardian produced a great model of how herd immunity works here

If enough people are immune, the disease spreads a bit, then stops

theguardian.com/society/ng-int…
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