The ONS numbers are as bad - in fact worse - that I had expected. This level of excess deaths in England & Wales since the coronavirus outbreak started is
27,015
Data is for registrations of deaths on average happening by April 13, when equivalent hospital number was 13,423
27,015
Data is for registrations of deaths on average happening by April 13, when equivalent hospital number was 13,423
The ONS chart shows this is no flu and much more prevalent than the hospital death figures suggest.
My cautious estimate for the deaths to date will now have to rise later today.
My cautious estimate for the deaths to date will now have to rise later today.
The care home deaths are particlarly bad.
There were 7,316 registrations in week ending 17 April, compared with a normal number of about 2,400.
That is for one week
There were 7,316 registrations in week ending 17 April, compared with a normal number of about 2,400.
That is for one week
It really is time to look at excess all cause mortality and think about this for public policy - and not a partial number from hospitals which appears to be running at about half the true level.
I will update this with more analysis later
ENDS
I will update this with more analysis later
ENDS
I am sorry. In the first Tweet of this thread, I said the E&W equivalent on 13 April was 13,423 - that was not quite right.
That's what NHS England and Public Health Wales are saying now.
At the time the daily announced figure was 11,408
The comparisons are sadly worse
That's what NHS England and Public Health Wales are saying now.
At the time the daily announced figure was 11,408
The comparisons are sadly worse
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