Even as the Budget speech was given, we now know the economy was only 6.2% below the pre-pandemic level not 10% as the OBR said
@FinancialTimes 2 cont. The OBR's 2021 growth forecast is rather alone at the foot of the league table
@FinancialTimes 3. Almost everyone apart from the OBR is revising down estimates of longer term scarring. This is the real game changer for the public finances, showing an improvement is not a one off
ENDS
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1) It's terribly fashionable in central banking to be seen to be green. This is a red flag for me because this isn't the role of central banks
2) Hauser at no stage attempts to quantify the effect of BoE bond buying on the environment. Let's be clear, he would if he could. So, it's irrelevant to the issue
3) The BoE has resorted to the use of rubbish infographics - it always does this when it's got nothing to say
BoE upgraded forecasts disguise a much more gloomy assessment for economy - the central bank revised down the growth forecast for future quarters, only increasing the assessment of the past ft.com/content/1e328f… via @financialtimes
@FinancialTimes Safe to say this was not the impression given by governor Andrew Bailey last week or the message received by him, but these are the forecast changes
They lend weight to Andy Haldane's argument that growth might well be stronger
@FinancialTimes Certainly, spending growth has not been slowing down because growth was better than feared in the third lockdown
The US really wants to make its global minimum corporate tax plan work and has just made a big concession to other countries in a bid to sue for peace internationally on.ft.com/3cVVWgS
If others roll back their digital taxes, US has recognised for the first time they should have the right to a slice of revenues from the likes of Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon etc based on sales in their jurisdictions
The suggestion is that apportionment rules should apply to all the sales on just the largest and most profitable multinationals globally. The results would be similar to those proposed by the OECD, but without specifically targeting digital companies (although they all be caught)
The chart shows the moving parts
- oil (worth next to nothing now)
- worsening Scottish revenues
- no longer any U.K. fiscal consolidation planned, so Scotland can’t assume the U.K. will do it’s fiscal dirty work for it any more
2/
Since the SNP commissioned 2018 sustainable growth commission, the fiscal gap needed to be filled has doubled from 2.9% of GDP to 5.7%
Note: this uses all of the SNP’s standard assumptions, which would be challenged by London in independence negotiations
3/
Sunak now faces pressure to lower tax on the Red Wall northern seats because they say they are unfairly treated on tax, paying too much and on spending, not getting the transport spending of London
Eg Miriam Cates, new Tory MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge
2/
There are now loads of funds for levelling up
- the towns fund
- the levelling up fund
- the shared prosperity fund
- changes to the green book for investment
You’d have thought that London and the South East had been partying on the backs of northern tax revenue
3/
There is a vaccine effect now in the UK, but it is dwarfed by the lockdown effect
- With case numbers still high, suggests a need for caution
- but a delicate balance on opening up because the virus and lockowns hurt