Thread by @DolphinDemVoter

Practically speaking, the U.S. is already in a recession, with the worst yet to come.

⬇️ Manufacturing down
⬇️ Service industry down
⬇️ Existing and new home sales down
⬇️ Consumer spending down
⬆️ Unemployment at record highs

1/12

seekingalpha.com/article/434018…

U.S. GDP was fairly stagnant most of 2019, and overall GDP increase in 2019 was less than 2017 and 2018. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release 1st Quarter economic numbers Wednesday (4/29).

2/12

bea.gov/news/2020/gros…

1st quarter U.S. GDP amid #coronavirus pandemic projected to be ⬇️ 4%-- steepest drop since 2009 Great Recession.

And it will go down from there- economists forecast the "biggest contraction in U.S. economic growth since Great Depression" in Spring

3/12

marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-i…

Other countries around the world are expected to take losses to their GDPs as well amid the #coronavirus pandemic. Germany's economy already contracted by 1.9% so far in 2020 and is expected to take a 6.6% hit overall this year.

4/12

reuters.com/article/us-hea…

But the U.S. hasn't implemented the mitigation strategies many other industrialized countries (like Germany) have to control #coronavirus spread. And Germany has already seen an increase in the rate of infection since lockdown measures have eased.

5/12

msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

U.S. Treas Sec Mnuchin thinks the economy will just spring right back after Spring-- basically making the argument that the federal gov't has thrown a lot of money at the economy, so once it opens up and people get back to work, all will be fine.

6/12

fxstreet.com/news/us-treasu…

But how likely is it that people who have lost their jobs will just hop right back into working...certainly it will take a bit of time for businesses to open up and for people to find work.

7/12

And let's not forget that the #coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. is very much NOT under control, and testing is limited.

8/12

(source: Google)

One can't just wish a pandemic away...it STILL will be there, even if the powers that be choose to ignore it.

9/12

Until the virus is under control, it will spread-- and much faster once the economy starts opening up for business. People will be sick and hospitals will be flooded. There will be fear as well-- esp after people start seeing the number of new cases and deaths rise.

10/12

And just like w/mitigation strategies to control the spread of #coronavirus, the U.S. has a patchwork of strategies in different states for how to open up the economy for business again.

11/12

All said, the road to U.S. economic recovery out of recession amid the #CoronavirusPandemic may be a long one. And if the U.S. has to shut down major sectors of its economy again due to a major second #COVID19 wave, the effects could be devastating

12/12

marketwatch.com/story/why-the-…