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#Covid19India

Status:
Infections: 1801 New | 34863 Total
Deaths: 75 New | 1154 Total
Recoveries: 631 New | 9068 Total

CDGR slowly declining ~ 11.36% now. Current daily growth level at 5.4% with its second order change holding at ~ 1.0 (signalling low volatility).

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#Covid19India

Proxies off Resolved Cases holding at 11.3% CFR & 88.7% Recoveries. Running Recoveries/Death ratio rises to 7.86. Expect to hit a taper down when this crosses 10.

Daily Deaths rate flat at 7% and Recoveries DOWN to 7.5%, likely due to growth from Bihar and WB.
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#Covid19India

Actives: 1095 New | 24641 Total

Current growth of Actives on gradually declined to holding at flat 47% with 10dMA/MM converged at the same point. 2-7dMAs in range 4.7-5.3%

Total Count 2-dMAs in range 5.4-6.5%. Slow decline visible on chart.
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#Covid19India

LookAhead for the week expects 47K Total Infection Count with 31-32K Actives

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#Covid19India

Contrast with US and Italy (1/2): Active Rate MAs

Italy has gone negative and holding well at an averaage of -1.1% with current daily at -3%
US average at 1.6% with current daily at -0.7%

India average at 4.9% with current daily at 4.7%

Still a long way to go +
#Covid19India

Contrast with US and Italy (2/2): Doubling Times

Italy has crossed well over 50 days (~ 70 days current 5dMA) and climbing.
US at 26 days and rising.
India at 12 days and climbing slowly.
RotW at 27 days and rising relatively much slow.

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#Covid19India

Lagged Death Rates Contrast:

RotW: 8.86% in [7.21-11.86%] | Floor rising
Italy: 14.84% in [13.61-16.55%] | Floor rise levelling out
US: 7.36% in [5.89-9.44%] | Floor rise levelling out
India: 5.35% in [3.31-8.59%] | Floor rising

Still a long way ahead for India.
Correction: 4.7% for Actives.
Charts for the above.

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