So I keep thinking about lockdown, easing lockdowns, the Covid R (reproduction number) and Google mobility index.
And I found something extremely interesting.
And I found something extremely interesting.
As i explained yesterday I did a cluster analysis to identify the countries' behaviours and impacts of lockdown policies.
The groups are the following:
The groups are the following:
One understands what each group of country has been doing with this chart explaining each cluster's centre (=a sort of average behaviour in the group)
Group 2 has been easing LD, group 2 is the hard lockdown group, Group 1 is mild lockdown with parks open and group 4 is the average
Now what happens if we chart this against changes in the R coefficient over the same period of time ? That would be interesting. How does mobility impact the reproduction number of Covid ?
Well here is the box plot for each group
I think comparing groups 2 & 3 makes a very clear point : easing lockdowns will move R upwards very quickly
Also there is a substantial benefit from harsh lockdowns compared to mild ones
Sorry for the typo; group 3 is hard lockdown
