Discussions about #COVID19 focus on binary outcomes: Death & Recovery. But we know #coronavirus undertakes “ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes” (sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/h…). This has dramatic implication for the Quality of Life of those not fully recovered. 1/
We can think of the total number of people infected with #coronavirus being distributed on a health-related Quality of Life scale (0 = Death & 1 = Fully recovered). Significant majority fully recover. 2/
However, what’s the number of people in the in-between compromised health state? How high is that number? It’ll be sometime before the full extent of this disease burden will become evident. In the interim, one shouldn’t forget this invisible damage exists. 3/3
"Many people think #COVID19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms... Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted... We are learning while we are sailing."
Surviving #COVID19 May Not Feel Like Recovery for Some
Debilitating symptoms can last long after a person’s body has gotten rid of the #coronavirus, a reality Italians are now confronting.
More on the false binary framing of #COVID19 outcomes (death/recovery). Report from Italy indicates:
- 30% of recovered patients at risk of chronic respiratory problems
- might take 6-12mo for full functional recovery (might not be complete for some)
Some #COVID19 patients say they’ve been ill for as long as 8 weeks - 4x longer than what official guidelines have advised:
#Coronavirus Patients Lose Senses of Taste, Smell—and Haven’t Gotten Them Back
Many experience emotional fallout from the loss; pizza that ‘tastes like cardboard to me’
.@edyong209 reports on the thousands of recovering #COVID19 patients who have been struggling with months of debilitating symptoms. As noted earlier, we are only beginning to understand and appreciate the extent of morbidity inflicted by the virus.
What doctors know about lingering symptoms of coronavirus
‘I Had To Learn To Walk Again... I lost 35 pounds, I had nine blood transfusions, I had kidney dialysis three times,” COVID-19 Survivor Recovering After 4 Months
- no underlying conditions and had gone on a 60-mile bike trip the week before getting sick.
My Covid-19 symptoms have lasted more than 100 days, and I’m not alone. Will they ever end?
From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/b…
"...cardiac MRI scans revealed that roughly 30-35 percent of Big Ten athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 appeared to have myocarditis."

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More from @Covid19Digest

Jul 14, 2020
Exhibit of shoddy analysis masquerading as insight. Plenty of reasons why Case Fatality Rates (CFR) may be low in new outbreak States, which has nothing to do with #COVID19 being "FAR LESS deadly."
Early US epidemic (eg, in NY,NJ,CT), testing capacity was limited resulting in fewer cases and was restricted to mostly hospitalized pts late in disease progression. Less precautions and limited knowhow / preparedness for disease management. All contributed to higher CFR.
With testing ramp, we are now detecting cases in community and sampling broader population (including younger people). Much improved knowhow about the virus, disease management, and precautionary measures. Some mitigation efforts still in place. All contribute to lower CFR.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 10, 2020
The moving goal posts and lies of #COVID19 deniers:

- It's just NY problem, the rest of us have nothing to worry about.

- New cases are low around the country anyway.

- Don't look at the cases. Need to normalize by population.

- Number of new cases is still low compared to...
- States are chasing hot spots. Ignore increasing cases count.

- Sure, new cases are increasing but it is all because of testing.

- US positive test rate is still low. COVID-19 epidemic is OVER.

- Some states are seeing rising positive rates but nothing to be concerned about.
- Sure, both cases and positive test rates are increasing but that's still because of testing younger people.

- New cases counts don't mean anything because huge majority recover anyway.

- Ignore cases; you need to look at hospitalizations and deaths. Both are trending down.
Read 13 tweets
May 28, 2020
Correlating mitigation policy onset/lifting w/ #coronavirus transmission leads to misleading conclusions if underlying consumer behavior & societal changes aren't considered. Where's the "second wave" some like to ask? Let's take Georgia as an example:
🧵 1/ 👇
Testing has been a fiasco (one of the States mixing PCR & AB results: theatlantic.com/health/archive…). Even then, as testing ramped, new cases finding has increased and positive rate has at best stayed flat recently.
The increase in new cases is happening despite depressed mobility even after shelter-in-place orders were lifted. Workplace, retail & recreation, transit stations activities still not back at pre-epidemic baseline. % at home also remains elevated.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 25, 2020
1/ This @WSJ sympathetic piece about Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis getting much attention. A couple of observations:
2/ "common denominator for everything that I was doing was that I was very interested in the methods—not necessarily the results but how exactly you do that, how exactly you try to avoid bias, how you avoid error.”
How ironic!
3/ That news report is about shoddy, questionable, and unethical participant recruitment for the same study Dr. Ioannidis proudly stands by. Perhaps example of "biases that are trying to generate significant, spectacular, fascinating, extraordinary results”?
Read 14 tweets
Apr 8, 2020
1/ What does #FlattenTheCurve mean for #NewYork.
3 likely scenarios for new #COVID19 cases finding:
a) Declines sharply (high containment)
b) Gradual decline (medium containment)
c) Flares up forming a bigger wave before declining (low containment)
2) a) Means beyond flattening, quashing the curve. Requires aggressive testing, tracing, and isolation of cases to arrest #coronavirus spread (like #SouthKorea). Highly unlikely given testing capacity/resources limitation & rampant community transmission.
3) b) Means mitigation works in keeping new cases increase controlled. While curve stays flat, days/wks of high new cases finding, followed by gradual decrease. Requires keeping mitigation measures in place for extended time given limitation in testing/tracing/isolation.
Read 7 tweets

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