Did they reach the 100,000 target?
It doesn't appear that 100,000 tests have been conducted and in the last 24 hours.
Nonetheless also true to say that capacity has rocketed quickly. We're not far away.
But it's really about what we do with that testing...(thread)
It doesn't appear that 100,000 tests have been conducted and in the last 24 hours.
Nonetheless also true to say that capacity has rocketed quickly. We're not far away.
But it's really about what we do with that testing...(thread)
100,000 target was always an arbitrary, political one. There's no epidemiological basis for it.
Talk to most public health experts/scientists and they'll say that what we really need is a strategy to put them to use
Principally, it's about test, track and trace.
Talk to most public health experts/scientists and they'll say that what we really need is a strategy to put them to use
Principally, it's about test, track and trace.
I made a piece about this yesterday for Newsnight, it can be viewed here:
But these are some of the challenges we're going to have to overcome in order to make it work for us
But these are some of the challenges we're going to have to overcome in order to make it work for us
First of all, we need loads more contact tracers
At the moment Public Health England has 260
The govt has a target to recruit 18000
But the Italian professor who led one of Italy's most successful tracer programmes told me yesterday 18000 "is just a drop in the ocean"
At the moment Public Health England has 260
The govt has a target to recruit 18000
But the Italian professor who led one of Italy's most successful tracer programmes told me yesterday 18000 "is just a drop in the ocean"
Also true to say that PHE/UK govt capabilities over track and trace have decline in recent years. That impedes our effort further.
One area where we still have some capability is in sexual health services
Contact tracing there is vital for, erm, obvious reasons
One area where we still have some capability is in sexual health services
Contact tracing there is vital for, erm, obvious reasons
I'm told that PHE has been in touch with NHS sexual health services and are asking for staffing and expertise in setting up the programme
Spoke to some experts in the field yesterday. They told me you really can't just have anyone do be a contact tracer.
Spoke to some experts in the field yesterday. They told me you really can't just have anyone do be a contact tracer.
Dr Ceri Evans told me: "there’s been contact with PHE-they’re looking for people who can help set up a service, we don’t know what that will look like we’ll try and release colleagues...we're now waiting to hear from PHE how they’re going to use that and in what environment."
Evans also told me you really can't just have anyone do it. She said that ideally you need someone with a medical background. "It's like detective work, skilled hard work and v labour intensive."
It also brings us to potential second problem, something before yesterday I'd never thought about. Honesty.
Apparently dishonesty is a big problem with sexual health contact tracing and clearly could be in the politics of lockdown. You've gone somewhre you shouldn't, slept with someone you shouldn't, partied somewhere you shouldn't etc...
Therefore having the right staff is really important as for all the hype about the app the truth is it probably won't really work. In Singapore, even Singapore, the take up rate was 12%. You'd need 60% for it to be effective. Assuming the tech works.
And that brings us to the final problem which experts worry about. Talk to anyone in local govt/public health world one of the first things they'll say which is impeding our overall effort is too much centralisation. That it's too much for DHSC/PHE to deal with at once.
Something which hampered our testing effort vs Germany's, say, was that the lander in Germany couldo go straight ahead with testing without waiting for Berlin.
Experts are worried that overcentralisation slowed us down with testing and will do so again with tracing.
Experts are worried that overcentralisation slowed us down with testing and will do so again with tracing.
untold story of this outbreak is the difference in the severity of outbreak acording to place.
See this graph I was leaked the other day. Shows vast differences between core cities.
Whitehall probably needs to empower local areas to deal with outbreak thsemlevs.
See this graph I was leaked the other day. Shows vast differences between core cities.
Whitehall probably needs to empower local areas to deal with outbreak thsemlevs.
Dr Allyson Pollock told me: "One of the problems is govt has chosen to treat this as a national epidemic using a top down centralised approach because what you’ve got is 100s if not 1000s of small outbreaks going on at a local level and..."
"...the only way you can get on top of those outbreaks is by careful monitoring and surveillance on the ground and involving the local community and understanding the local community."
So really, though of course the 100,000 target attracts a lot of attention, it's only a means to an end anyway. One of those ends is a contact tracing programme. And one of the big tests (as it were) for govt next week and the future is how quickly (and well) it can be rolled out
