We are in the second wave in a few provinces while according to official data numbers keep declining.
Hard to really understand what is going on.
According to Kaveh Madani, a well-known mathematician and Game Theory scientist (now working on modelling environmental problems), official data painting a very positive picture.
On the other hand, Khuzestan health officials are talking of possibility of using force in enforcing social distancing after new #COVIDー19 cases rocketed in this province and hospitals overloaded.
While I have been reporting things in Qom (1.2M), the original epicentre, have been improving, according to officials this province is still in red due to number of #COVIDー19 patients in hospital.
If you remember I reported a wave of fatality among the children and explained this could be a delayed effect of the disease which has not yet been understood.
There are now several reports from other countries including Britain that describes a condition similar to Kawazaki disease which is a form of vasculitis with the immune system potentially playing a role.
A new report sheds some light on impact on pregnant women with #COVIDー19 in Iran. 700 pregnant women with #COVIDー19 were identified 500 of whom needed hospitalisation. 20 newborn babies were born with COVID symptoms.
The report of a hospital in Gilan closing down a month ago and more layoff among nurses and staff across a number of hospitals worrying while the Health Ministry has advised hospitals and staff to "work it our between yourselves".
As I said, Health Ministry yesterday quickly mentioned a test of a sample of healthy people showed a 15% #COVIDー19 infection rate.
A similar percentage was reported from Afghanistan which is interesting. I heard also same from Germany and New York.
As I had reported, rise of #COVIDー19 in Khuzestan province has been alarming. Meanwhile an outbreak of Cholera has been also reported. [most likely from pollution of streams of water due to recent flooding?]
Starting from yesterday, wearing face mask in public transport (Metro, Bus, shuttle taxi) in Tehran has become mandatory while some report of up to 50% not complying.
This car is advertising selling 4 masks for 10K tomans (~¢70) [Minimum wage = 2M tomans]
The layoff of nurses which I mentioned today are reaching worrying levels which has made Iranian Council of Nursing to declare that illegal. Their solution: A hospital unable to pay staff for 2 months must be closed down (everyone gets laid off!)
As I reported about the #COVIDー19 in children, there was a report from Sanandaj, Kurdistan province (1.6M) where 3 fatalities reported in just that hospital.
Report suggests the main presentation was gastrointestinal symptoms later turned out to be COVID
#IMPORTANT we have now some information that can help us predict rough number of deaths and that is by comparing number of deaths in Behesht Zahra (Tehran's main cemetery) morgue with last year same time.
This information had been inaccessible since site was deactivated.
Previously Behesht Zahra's site reported burials live with all statistics publicly available. After #COVIDー19, this was removed.
But reporters have managed to gain access to these numbers and here it goes:
... and Farvardin compared to 8268 the year before. This suggests 4732 additional deaths this year. Considering number of deaths due to road accident which would rocket during Persian New Year holidays, this would suggest perhaps ~5500 additional deaths in Tehran...
Estimation of #COVIDー19 death in Iran so far as 22-38K.
This is in line with my estimates of a month ago of 18K.
To put into perspective 22-38K #COVIDー19 deaths, other numbers:
Official numbers [Today]: 6203
Iran Internationa [Today]l: 13193
MEK [Today]: 39K
My estimate [March 22]: 18K
MIT and Virginia Tech [March 28]: 15,485
This puts Iran above all other countries (per population).
Of course basing on 2 months is not very accurate but deaths before those months have been pretty small. I guess a factor 20% can be added on top for deaths prior to Esfand and after Farvardin.
When discussing mortality and comparing to other countries, it is important to take into account the age.
One difference of the current second wave (flatter) compared to the first wave is the fact that people now understand they should only visit hospitals if they are seriously ill.
Tweet from March 5th, that 40% of cases contracted it in hospitals.
It then, however, turned out to be the work of Islamic Republic's own intelligence ministry. They finally accepted that an "autonomous cell" within the ministry led by Saied Emami had gone rogue and planned and executed the attack.
With that in the back of Iranian minds, terrorist attack on Shah Cheragh shrine in Shiraz was immediately dismissed as the work of the Islamic Republic itself, especially considering the timing (protests).
But it is undeniable that ISIS has claimed responsibility and released 👇
Today, dozens of cities around the world will witness human chains of Iranians extending for miles.
This has been planned for London too, sadly I do not feel well enough to go.
After weeks and weeks of reactive handling of the protests in the hope of them fizzling out, today the regime is planning to use today's burial procession of Shiraz terrorist attack victims to take the initiative back again.
IRGC Commander again declared the end of protests.
As you can see from the images above, even for a neutral event where everyone would condemn such cowardly terrorist attack (and I do too), the regime failed to bring masses to the street.
Believe me I chose busiest pics, check them for yourself.
#BREAKING The country is in turmoil and it feels like the regime is losing the grip - which is not necessarily good news since this might mean we enter a military phase.
People are reported to be in control of Town of Mahabad in Kurdistan
Funny thing is that taghvim.com website used commonly by Iranians says today is 30th of Rabi al-Awwal. All other calendars say today is 1st of Rabi-ali-Thaani.
It cannot be ISIS!
My Arab followers, can you please tell me what day it is according to Hijri calendar?
Some calendars I found say 28th, some 29th, some 1st ...
#IranProtests2022 5th week of incessant protests (29th day) starting today with reports of ongoing protests in Karaj, Rashst, Hamedan and Shahinshahr.
It is 1:30 PM local time.
This is students today in Sanandaj.
In Ardabil where a high school student was allegedly beaten to death (we have not yet been able to confirm or disprove) protesters have clashed with the security forces.