Thread by @jimbrunsden

#UK's @michaelgove told the @LordsEUCom yesterday that a transition period extension with the #EU would cost "something between £20bn gross and £10bn net". Let's look into that claim: 1/

Mr Gove said that an extension would mean the #UK getting tied up in the #EU's next multi-annual budget, over which it would have no say:"We can’t know what precisely what bill we were to be saddled with, or have to assent to, were we to agree to another year of transition." 2/

But this is not how the #UK's withdrawal agreement from the #EU works. Here is the relevant bit of the treaty: 3/

This means that the #UK would negotiate an amount to be paid with Brussels. This is different to how the transition period works now. The #UK would be a non-#EU country buying access to the #EU market. The amount to be paid would not be determined by the next #EU budget. 4/

The #UK would not actually be covered by many of the programmes in the next #EU budget, so gross and net is not really relevant. The #UK would be out of the Common Agricultural Policy, for example. So it's not clear what Gove is hitting at with his gross and net numbers. 5/

It looks as if he is copy pasting what what #UK paid as an #EU member state, and assuming that is what would continue to apply during an extension. But the situation would really be quite different. Here's my go at explaining it: ft.com/content/7e3a25… ENDS