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#Finlandia e #Svezia nella #NATO: il conflitto ucraino è poco più di un pretesto

L’avvicinamento dei due paesi baltici all’Alleanza Atlantica era in corso da decenni.

Il mio nuovo articolo per #IntelligenceForThePeople 🧵
La tesi generalmente sostenuta per spiegare la decisione di #Finlandia e #Svezia è che il senso di insicurezza dei due paesi, acuito dalla “gratuita” aggressione russa all’#Ucraina, li avrebbe spinti a rinunciare alla loro neutralità per avere protezione in seno alla #NATO.
Questa tesi è fallace sotto due aspetti:

1) Come ho cercato di spiegare in un precedente articolo, non è la mancata inclusione dell’#Ucraina nella #Nato che l’avrebbe esposta alle cosiddette “mire espansionistiche” di Mosca.
Read 19 tweets
So I wasn’t that worried a few hrs ago. This dials it up a little.

For anyone who has ever played the collaborative board game #Pandemic, you may know how it goes when there’s uncontrolled spread of one pathogen throughout 🌎 & then outbreak of a new one in mult countries. 😖
The current #monkeypox outbreak now includes cases in #UK, #Spain, #Portugal, #Canada, #US…from what I’m reading, this sounds like person-to-person transmission, which historically was thought to be rare, & evidence of community spread. Wow. #MedTwitter…
Smallpox vaccination provides at least partial protection against #monkeypox, but routine smallpox vaccination in the 🇺🇸 stopped in 1972. Most Americans under age 50, including myself, are not #vaccinated.
Read 4 tweets
#Finland and #Sweden officially apply to join @NATO.
“This is a good day, at a critical moment for our security,” responds @NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg.…
Read 6 tweets
Shout out to @mikasounds @Eurovision #EUROVISION and his white suit which reminded me of the chef whites worn by Sandor Eles in Crossroads back in the day.
Czech Republic singer looked like Xena Warrior Princess. Enjoyed the modular system. Song sounded ok but like the key needed to be changed up a semitone.

#Eurovision #ESC2022
Romanian backing dancers look like they've got crayoned on abs. The Primas guy singer is a bit Luke Evans with nipple tassels. The tash is quite Kevin from Corrie in 1982.
Read 37 tweets
Here we go! #Eurovision
That was rather beautiful. #GivePeaceAChance #Eurovision
Oh she's not quite managed to get her yellow mac fastened there. Tricky things. #Eurovision
Read 30 tweets
This article by @andrewduffEU is sadly typical of group think in & around the Brussels bubble.

“Nobody who knows how the Brussels institutions work-without a strong government-can be confident the EU is fit to internalize #Ukraine’s national problem.” 1/…
It’s a well informed piece (from an #EU perspective) that on the surface might sound eminently reasonable- like some other recent attempts to fob off #Ukraine with 2nd class options. BUT, the quote in the previous tweet gives the game away. It shows 🇺🇦 is seen as a problem 2/
Rather than being recognised as the #EU’s best geopolitical opportunity in a generation, #Ukraine is presented as a cost, a burden to be borne, not a huge potential benefit to be embraced, or a possibility for EU renewal to be welcomed. 3/…
Read 12 tweets
BREAKING: #UAE President #KhalifabinZayed just died. Crown Prince of #AbuDhabi since 1969, and Abu Dhabi Ruler & President since his father Sheikh Zayed died in 2004. The #BurjKhalifa was initially named to honor him.

A few words on him + what happens now in a thread. 1/
After #KhalifabinZayed suffered a stroke in 2014, his younger brother Mohammad bin Zayed (#MbZ) became de facto leader of the #UAE. Now the Federal Supreme Council (including the rulers of the 7 Emirates) will ratify #MbZ as official President of the #UAE. Basically guaranteed 2/
The more interesting thing is who will be appointed #UAE Crown Prince. Options include #MbZ’s brother & #security czar #TahnoonBinZayed, another brother, or #MbZ’s son #KhalidBinZayed.

While #SaudiArabia moved to primogeniturial succession, the #UAE might do the opposite. 3/
Read 15 tweets
L'#Ukraine servait bien de base à des activités militaro-biologiques illégales - La #Russie ns explique cette nébuleuse
Le programme a été mis en œuvre par R. Pope qui le 10/04 déclarait:
« il n'y a aucune raison d'affirmer que des recherches d'armes bio ont lieu en Ukraine » 1/
Le programme implique
-Des Big Pharma: Pfizer, Moderna, Merck, Gilead..
-Des ONG contrôlées par Soros, Clinton, Biden, Obama, Rockefeller..
-Des structures US dont Le Pentagone, le CDC,..

Des experts US testaient des médicaments en contournant les normes internationales 2/
Les structures étatiques US fournissaient le matériel et menaient des expérimentations dignes des nazis (slide 5). Les ONG masquaient les activités. Big Pharma généraient de gros bénéfices et finançait le parti démocrate. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Recent Publications & Threads (A 🧵)
I. Articles & Commentaries Published
II. Interviews with me on (European) Politics & Security
III. Threads on #Ukraine #Germany #EU #UK #CEE and more.
Gathered in one place ...
I. Articles and Commentaries

8. Are #Czechia & #Slovakia the #EU's New Radical Centre
for @RUSI_org…
I. Articles and Commentaries

7. Ukraine Doesn't Need Half-Measures from the #EU
for @ForeignPolicy…
Read 21 tweets
I dont know if every single country has this shape of human, like Finland? #Denmark looks like a gnome who lost his shoe, and a bat. Image
#UK and #Ireland, like a little owl and mongoose working in burger place Image
#Finland as we have pictured the shape here Image
Read 49 tweets
So much for #Macron 2.0
- early days but this really looks like more of the same

A- prioritises ambition for #France to be a ‘great power’, at the table with eg #Russia

B- never mind if #CEE gets overlooked & #Ukraine gets a raw deal.

That’s harsh but not entirely unfair 1/
There may be more to the revival of concentric circles/variable geometry than meets the eye & it may be a creative way to end the ENP/EaP impasse BUT ONLY if countries can move through the circles rather than being kept in/ relegated to them - & are supported in doing so 2/
#Macron will need to convince CEE countries (incl. #Ukraine) & W. Balkans that they will have these possibilities. & he’ll have his work cut out to do so. Multi speed/variable geo EU is not necessarily a bad idea but only if it’s without the 1st/2nd class divide many suspect 3/
Read 5 tweets
1/ an excerpt from our lead story in last week's newsletter, on the leaked #RoeVWade decision:

"The most discouraging aspect of the leaked Roe draft opinion is its intention to vest in state legislatures final authority on abortion rights,
2/...with a directive that women seeking reproductive autonomy should vote, lobby or run for elective office to obtain their desired policy outcome.
Read 28 tweets
Megalopolis x #Russia: Total War by Pepe Escobar…

After careful evaluation, the Kremlin is rearranging the geopolitical chessboard to end the unipolar hegemony of the “indispensable nation”.

Operation Z is the first salvo of a titanic struggle: three decades after the fall of the USSR, and 77 years after the end of WWII, after careful evaluation, the Kremlin is rearranging the geopolitical chessboard to end the unipolar hegemony of the “indispensable nation”.
Read 56 tweets
पहले वीडियो में पाकिस्तान के एक मौलाना की क्लास लगी हुई है। सुनिए... कितने शालीनता से ज्ञान दिया जा रहा है। उसी मौलाना के कुछ पूर्व छात्रों का केम्पस सिलेक्शन हुआ।
जी हां सीधे #UK #बर्मिंघम में प्लेसमेंट मिला।

दूसरे वीडियो में देखिए उन्ही पूर्व छात्रों को (1/2)
ON DUTY... "वर्क फ्रॉम रोड़ करते हुए देखिए....!!" चूंकि "वह वीडियो ट्विटर को पसन्द नही आया इसलिए उसे हटाना पड़ा।"

Read 4 tweets
I have high hopes for these kids! #UK is the greatest nation on earth. It is a tolerant and respectful society. The English cousins respect you and value you regardless of your background. Soon these kids will be exposed to the wider society through the education system.
He will soon be able to escape the clutches of the ignorance and intolerance that his parents have raised him up in! As he grows up, he will understand that it's OK to respect #Women. It's OK to respect your neighbors regardless of his creed, colour or religion.
It's OK to be tolerant of others. Those who look different to you. Those who have a different #religion to you. Those who speak a different language to you. Those who have different traditions and cultures to you. Those who may not agree with you.
Read 11 tweets
U.K. says it discovered ‘sick’ Russian troll factory

“We cannot allow the Kremlin and its shady troll farms to invade our online spaces with their lies about Putin’s illegal war,” Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in a statement.

“The UK Government has alerted international partners and will continue to work closely with allies and media platforms to undermine Russian information operations.”

The “sick” organization is working from St. Petersburg, with paid employees and internal working teams, the U.K. government said in a press release.

Read 10 tweets
A quick follow up on dangers of German exceptionalism & 🇩🇪's insular political culture arising
from yesterday's thread on #Germany's approach to #Ukraine (& some great responses to it) in the context of #Emma #offenerbrief (open letter to Olaf Scholz)
1. Many ppl claim '#Germans have been told for 70 years that nothing but diplomacy & non-military solutions are acceptable' They're wrong but prove the 🇩🇪insularity point.
This was the message INSIDE #Germany for (some) understandable reasons. But OUTSIDE it was very different:
#Germany has been warned by allies (in #CEE, #US, #UK) for years about #Russia
& about Cheap-riding in #NATO.

But, as (e.g.) this piece shows,🇩🇪ignored those warnings & went its own way on defence, on🇷🇺& ended up trampling #CEE & #Ukraine's agency…
Read 12 tweets
#Ukraine #UK
'The Russian Defence Ministry drew attention to a statement made by the British Deputy Defence Chief James #Heappey that "it would not necessarily be a problem" if the weapons provided by the United Kingdom to Kyiv were used to strike targets on Russian territory
We want to stress that London's direct provocation of the #Kyiv regime into such actions, if attempted, would immediately lead to our proportional response.
As we have warned, the Russian Armed Forces are on round-the-clock alert to launch retaliatory strikes with long-range precision weapons against the decision-making centres in Kyiv.
Read 4 tweets
Today's thread of updates from #Moldova explosions in #Russia controlled "separatist" Transnistrian region near #Ukraine
- 3 confirmed explosions
- RusMFA threats & blame of #Ukraine
- MLD Govt assessment it's internal separatist war-party, conflicting similar explosions in Ru
#Moldova v.brief update 27 Apr 2022 : shots were heard near Cobasna weapons depot housing ~20.000MetricTons of #Russia munitions in the "separatist" region Ru supports. MLD Govt stated shots were fired nearby in #Ukraine not Cobasna, as the border is near.…
2. Here is a video by "Ministry of Interior" of #Russia controlled "separatist" region of #Moldova showing the attack with 3 RPGs on 25Apr2022 on transnistiran MGB. They blamed #Ukraine yet attackers are masked & the car has hardly visible license plates…
Read 9 tweets
#Ukraine #UK
The British Ministry of Defense again called the Ukrainians to war

Ben #Wallace, who at one time failed to redeem the Lexus and Vovan prank
listed a list of British ammunition shipments to Ukraine (for The Hague, no less).
And his deputy James #Heappey gave his consent for Ukrainians to use these weapons for terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation.
The very fact of calls for the continuation of the conflict and the Afghanization of Ukraine clearly hints that the West does not benefit from peace, but quite the opposite.

Therefore, the Western press quickly "forgot" that the Kyiv regime is protected by neo-Nazis.
Read 5 tweets
Russia’s Lavrov warns of ‘serious’ danger of World War III via @AJEnglish
More talks about nuclear use:
UK Defense Secretary @BWallaceMP threatens #Russia: "The #UK can use nukes to defend itself and NATO if necessary."
#CIA is investing great resources to protect and control the President of #Ukraine @ZelenskyyUa.

A president controlled and protected by a foreign intelligence service indicates how "in dep end ent" the "decision-maker" is or perhaps who is the "sheriff in town".
Read 6 tweets
V. interesting ongoing discussion in this event.
Excellent points from @DLidington @RosaBalfour & @GeorginaEWright
some more concerning though:
- alternatives to #EU candidacy for #Ukraine
- over-estimation of #Germany's #zeitenwende & EU role in countering #Putin's aggression
@DLidington particularly compelling on the need for #Russia to lose - anything else will be a defeat for the West - & as on keeping the #US fully involved in European security (and the need for #France & #UK to work together on that & on helping #Germany reach security potential
@GeorginaEWright outlined potential French (public & politicians) objections to #Ukraine's #EU membership aspirations & thus the need to consider alternatives. - something, I strongly challenge here. How to convince 🇫🇷 to embrace 🇺🇦 - its in 🇪🇺 interest!…
Read 4 tweets
The flash S&P Global/CIPS composite #PMI fell from 60.9 in March to 57.6 in April. Although broadly consistent with GDP growing at a quarterly rate of 0.7-8%, the latest reading signals a marked slowing in the pace of growth 1/
UK service sector business inflows grew at the slowest rate in 2022 to date. In manufacturing, order book growth has lost momentum, driven by an increasing loss of export sales, to result in the weakest rise in new orders since January 2021. 2/
#UK manufacturers and service providers reported demand having been hit by high COVID-19 infection rates and spending power having been squeezed by higher prices, but Brexit was also seen as having hit exports, and the Ukraine war/sanctions was cited as an additional headwind 3/
Read 6 tweets
Friday's daily thread on #PutinsWar starts here.

It's Day 58 of the illegal war since #Russia launched its illegal full invasion in of #Ukraine. Yet still only one real city gained - #Kherson. The hemmed in fighters of #Mariupol' are still holding out.

All the news, all day⬇️
The morning update from UK MoD intelligence sums things up. They confirm the news I brought in yesterday's thread with video of some #Russia soldiers leaving #Mairupol'

But something else unplanned, costly in time and rubles, sending damaged equipment home for repair
Y'day some 200 evacuees fled from #Mariupol, but further attempts to remove civilians were thwarted

But today NO 'Green Corridors' anywhere in #Ukraine "due to dangers on routes" said Deputy PM Iryna Vereshchuk. "To all those waiting to be evacuated: be patient, please hold on!"
Read 40 tweets

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