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Good morning from #Copenhagen, #Denmark 😀Another exciting week in the market. Hope you are up for some #HZupdates. We are imo getting closer to an inflection point where things will start to develop fast. Stay tuned! 👍
😀 I would like to see how many #FinTwit users read my #HZupdates on a weekly basis. Will you please answer by a simply "yes" or "no" to the question: I read #HZupdates every weekend. Thanks! 👍
#SP500 I think we pot. have a full count for US #equities. I see a test of the lower trendline (yellow mark) as a given. How successful that test turns out will give us a lot of info. #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets
I am becoming more sure as every twist of the #Brexit knife happens, that the same mindset that was behind Hitler's policies in Nazi Germany are being subtly or will be openly enacted here upon a #nodealbrexit
Let me unpick this .....
Right from the start of the campaign ~ generated to keep Cameron in power and stave off the 'bastards' sic.Major on the right/UKIP, pure racism was allowed and encouraged in the press. A subtle game was played whereby legit EU citizens were turned into 'illegal migrants. #brexit
Outright lies of Leave.EU and Voteleave were never publically opposed by any MPs ~ and indeed, the *crimes* committed by both organisations are not being investigated by the police,nor Govt declared the ref null & void on what has been uncovered by @carolecadwalla
Read 14 tweets
@CapitalJon @PaulGambles2 @AlastairWinter @Halsrethink @dlacalle_IA @OBrienSheehan @chloechotv 1. #EU-#Europe before 2000 was OK: Open borders within #EU for EU-citizens, people can live & work (and study) in all EU states (so take great care who joins - went too fast too far East). The seed of destruction came with the #EURO.
@CapitalJon @PaulGambles2 @AlastairWinter @Halsrethink @dlacalle_IA @OBrienSheehan @chloechotv 2. More centralization & #Merkel's #RefugeesWelcome (with the will to enforce mass-#migration on other #EU states) introduce more toxic cancer cells into the #EU!
A common budget (#Macron) & an #EU-army would be the end of true #democracy & #freedom within #Europe!
@CapitalJon @PaulGambles2 @AlastairWinter @Halsrethink @dlacalle_IA @OBrienSheehan @chloechotv 3. The next step would be the likes of #Merkel, #Macron & #Juncker enforcing their will by first witholding money & next send the #EU-army to topple the likes of #Orban in #Hungary.
Read 6 tweets
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Thread: While the world is shaken by the #murder of #Bulgarian journalist #ViktoriaMarinova, it might be a good time to talk about the country itself. #BG ranks lower in #PressFreedom than both #Hungary or #Poland. The country is the poorest and most corrupt in the #EU. 1/13
Yet, the #EU somehow does not think #Bulgaria is a big issue, due to the fact that PM (and ex-bodyguard of #Soviet General Secretary Todor Zhivkov) @BoykoBorissov "behaves", unlike #Orban and #Kaczyński, who openly challenge the Union. Borissov's party is also member of @EPP 2/13
#MediaFreedom-wise, 80% of the print media in the country is owned by MP #Peevski, whose pro-gov tabloids (with the generous help of other pro-gov actors who get nice rewards in return such as property #Blaskov) stifle #opposition and manage vast #antiEU smear campaigns 3/13
Read 13 tweets
💣Espionage💣

The servers at TT & Alfa Bank, Spectrum Health & Heartland PS, were communicating via DNS look ups, sharing packet data.

‘GOP, Trump & Rick Gates are reportedly directly implicated in espionage against the US 2016 primary/Pres elex via help from a foreign power.’
💣Espionage💣

Rick Gates, the indicted Trump campaign official and Manafort aide & GOP Operative sought proposals from Psy Group an Israeli intelligence firm to run a coordinated disinfo campaign against US voters to help Trump win the primary & general elections.

.
💣Espionage3💣

Initially Psy-Group offered a social media manipulation campaign which included fake social media profiles that would attack Ted Cruz and discredit him the eyes of GOP Party delegates, who was at the time Trump’s main competitor for the GOP nomination.
Read 78 tweets
I want to talk a minute about how #Brexit is viewed by most of the #Dutch here in the #Netherlands.

1/
The #Dutch are mostly bewildered by #Brexit and why anyone would want to leave.

We do have a small EU critical faction in parliament (PVV+FvD=32 seats out of 150), but 4/5ths of the electorate are either uncaring or moderately to rabidly pro EU.

home.noties.nl/peil/

2/
Our #economy stands to take quite a hit from Brexit. Up to a few percent, even.

economics.rabobank.com/publications/2…

This is seen as a betrayal by most #Dutch, who take the
health of our economy very seriously, especially after supporting Britain's liberal ideas in the #EU

3/
Read 6 tweets
The discussion in the EU about how to address the problem of the rule of law in PL has mainly focused on deploying punitive measures. This inspired me to write a paper for @Carnegie_Europe within its #Europeandemocracy project which calls on a more comprehensive strategy. #Thread
1.Don't get me wrong. The EU cannot turn a blind eye on democratic backsliding in its own members. EU treaties provide EC with legal instruments 2 address the problem&EC has been doing its job vis-à-vis. But it will fail to restore #ruleoflaw if it only sticks 2 punitive measures
2.The EC needs to ensure that the Polish public understands the EU’s motives for intervening. Poles are pro-European but they are vulnerable to the PiS narrative that Brussels has no right to tell Warsaw what to do ( I refer to some polling in the piece)
Read 12 tweets
Thread re Prime Minister on #BBCtoday @BBCr4today re #EU just now: she got her catchphrase in early and followed the classic media training advice 'repeat, repeat, repeat'. 3 years ago it was 'Long-term economic plan', now it is 'when we leave the EU free movement will end'
or 'when we leave the EU we will take back control of our money, our laws and our borders'. All of which is based on fallacy - claim of net out-flow of money has been demonstrated clearly many times, we elect our MEPs and the MPs who debate the EU regs and we have border controls
Astonishingly disdainful way she thinks of UK workers - they will be trained for the low skilled jobs currently done by people from EU27 countries, but we will still allow people in if they will have salary of £50k. She had no plan for immediate recruitment e.g. for care homes
Read 25 tweets
Don’t know which Europeans Mr. Hannan is speaking to but I haven’t met anyone in Brussels or in EU capitals who is unhappy with the Commission approach & I’ve spoken to a lot of them. #Brexit
In addition, no-one in the #EU is threatening the UK (I wld challenge Hannan to point to one threat that has come from a leading EU politician or negotiator), nor are they stopping the UK from leaving. #Brexit
The EU have been clear from the start that there are many trade models available to the UK & the UK have ruled most of them out. If it feels like the UK has little room for manoeuvre it is because the government painted itself into a corner. #Brexit
Read 17 tweets
It had always been government’s belief that if it cld speak to the Member States rather than the Commission it wld get a better #Brexit deal. The UK, they thought, could divide & rule. Jeremy Hunt’s comments have put an end to that. #Brexit
Comparing the #EU to the Soviet Union is the latest easily avoidable diplomatic error made by a cabinet minister. Hunt’s comments have lead to countries that used to be the UK’s best friends in the Council (like Estonia & Latvia) openly stating that he has insulted them. #Brexit
If the UK was to successfully divide & rule, it needed to keep its friends close. What it is doing is pushing them away. #Brexit
Read 10 tweets
Theresa May, Facing Hard Deadline, Struggles to Navigate Treacherous #Brexit Politics as U.K. ⁦@Conservatives⁩ gather with party torn over what to do about it. Our report via ⁦@WSJwsj.com/articles/there…
Six months before #Brexit, nobody knows how it will happen. “We’re in a bit of a dangerous position,” said Nick Timothy, May's former chief of staff. “It feels like absolutely anything is possible, from staying in after all to departure without a deal..." wsj.com/articles/there…
A no-deal #Brexit deal means serious immediate economic disruption with ports clogging with trucks awaiting customs clearance. The UK is unprepared, but #EU countries too are uniformly unready for a no-deal exit, a recent “stress test” of the members found wsj.com/articles/there…
Read 8 tweets
1/#WTOStc/@stuffofwar
The medieval formation & modern history of the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, & Lithuania) is a very intricate, difficult topic.
Sadly, key artefacts were deliberately blown up (Boris Stones) stolen (Euphrasia’s Cross) or erased (by propaganda or genocide)
2/#WTOStc
after the 1939 Soviet-Nazi pact such that the 1 artefact unifying the area in #medieval times - the COG ship used by Catholic Crusaders then adopted by Orthodox colonizers & Slavic tribes along the Neman, Daugava, Emmajõgi, Velikaya, & Volkhov Rivers - is terribly rare.
3/#WTOStc
Yet of the COG remains its MOSS - polytrichum commune - flourishing all over the region.
Since Soviet studies had to ignore dendochronology (tree-ring dating) & Chernobyl’s radiation (=false chemical dating) & skirt the limits of KGB monitoring,& since 1992 each free
Read 17 tweets
1. There is a ‘global trend’ / ‘strategic direction’ argument that seems missing from much of the #Brexit debate on #trade. I’m no specialist, but for the uninitiated, it is broadly this: [thread, to which welcome contribution from true experts]
2. From the 1960s, economists and diplomats eyed up potential benefits to all parties of freer world trade. The GATT and later WTO are an expression of that.
3. Trouble is, a multilateral agreement proved damned difficult to negotiate on simple stuff - goods, esp agricultural products - never mind complex stuff that require greater regulatory compatibility.
Read 9 tweets
The French data protection authority has issued the first formal guidance on the relationship between #blockchain and the #GDPR in the #EU.

I'll tweet some of the main points. Here is the full text: cnil.fr/sites/default/…
1. The @CNIL makes clear that its goal issuing this publication is to provide concrete guidance to actors in the space. This is to be applauded. Many in this space try to build compliant systems but are having a hard time figuring out what this entails.
2. *Data controllers*: unsurprising: where users directly engage with the ledger they can sometimes be controllers.

This, however, is only so where natural or legal persons exercise a professional or commercial activity (broad interpretation of household activity).
Read 19 tweets
Air boxing by top #UK officials is amazing. Who punching at? Unlike in London, #Brexit never been much fight in Brussels, more lament. When some urged penalty in financial settlement, EU ignored & just tabbed up #'s. Citizen rights a 2-way street. Other stuff mainly logistical..
Point again is not to take any side, but merely point out Brussels has had consistent principles, goals & negotiating positions from the start. London still has no consensus on final objective. No one I know in #EU has advocated for "no deal" but some in #UK actually do that...
Have had many many long conversations w/ top London colleagues. Am very conscious of all arguments & concerns on #UK side, incl over Northern Ireland. But even in no deal scenario, #UK will end up facing exact same choice on future relationship w/ EU as now, but w/o transition...
Read 4 tweets
"Minister @WalkerWorcester met with members of the #Swedish community in the #UK to explain the agreement that is in place to abolish their rights after we leave the #EU but allow them to apply (@ £65 each) for reduced rights under UK law."

Fixed it for you!
Actually that's not quite right is it.

Let me try again:
"Minister @WalkerWorcester met with members of the #Swedish community in the #UK to explain the agreement, that we are trying to make with the #EU, to abolish their rights after we leave but which will allow Swedes to apply (@ £65 each) for reduced rights under UK law."
Read 3 tweets
"We accomplished a lot," @POTUS says after his meeting today with #Poland President @AndrzejDuda.
"The alliance between our nations has never been stronger, with us at the helm," @POTUS says to @AndrzejDuda. #Poland
"The United States and Poland are deeply committed to energy diversity all across Europe," @POTUS says at @WhiteHouse joint news conference.
Read 26 tweets
The French community in the 🇬🇧 is "one of the most important ones in the world, with more than 143 000 French citizens signed up on consular registers" - Europe Minister @NathalieLoiseau addresses the 🇫🇷 community at the @ifru_london
"If there are so many of you which are established here, it is a sign that our talents are sought after and appreciated. You bring a '🇫🇷 touch', so loved in many different fields"
"Beyond exiting the #EU, #France will remain a key partner for the #UK, in every single sector."
Read 9 tweets
So it seems #Idlib ops (divided into 3 stages) has been moved for a further date, giving me enough time to close the Iraqi news and return to #Syria, soon.
#Turkey failed to integrate al-Nusra, aka Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, within rebels army (it might succeed at a certain point); failed to isolate al-Qaeda (Hurras el-Deen) & foreign fighters, incl Chinese Uyghur jihadists. So Erdogan turned against the #EU

#Russia refused any negotiation over Jihadists in #Idlib and insisted on Turkey to fulfil its promises or stand down.

Putin is expected to give Erdogan more time by clearing rural Lattakia, rural Hama, rural Aleppo and leave the city of Idlib last.

Read 4 tweets
In case you're wondering: the #EU just voted to impose filters on all the text, audio, photos, videos, etc you might post. If you think this will help photographers or other creators, you don't understand filters.
First of all: pirates laugh at filters. The most sophisticated image filters in the world - those used for state censorship in China - are trivial to evade citizenlab.ca/2018/08/cant-p… Anyone whose occupation is beating filters will beat filters.
But people who are legit? Including photogs? They're FUCKED. Filters can be intentionally bypassed if you know the trick, but if you're (say) a news photog whose photo of a protest includes a bus-ad with some stock imagery, the filters will not be able to know that you're legit.
Read 19 tweets
1...Imagine (if you can) that you are the political plankton @PeterBoneUK.

For 13 long years you have held your nose & suffered the whiny grievances emanating from Midlands skid mark town #Wellingborough...
2...Your only previous claim to fame was when you were described as Britain's "meanest boss" by the Daily Mirror for paying a 17-year-old trainee 87p an hour while remunerating your wife £45k per year.
3...Suddenly, thanks to a decision of galactic size stupidity by #DavidCameron, you & your fellow has-beens & never-will-bes in the #ERG, find yourselves at a table with the big boys. Who needs viagra now you’re pals with Boris & Jacob & the press are all over you?
Read 6 tweets
Overt #racism is only the tip of the iceberg. Far more lies hidden, deeply ingrained, suppressed by conscience, a fear of criticism, even shame. Post 2016 referendum we saw how some of this suppression was lifted. #Brexit didn’t make people racist. The ballot box freed it. 1/9
Covert, ingrained #racism *is* a huge problem for society. It doesn’t help that we can’t see it, that we don’t allow people to have a voice. UKIP in 2015 had over 12% of the votes cast yet no representation in parliament. That can’t have pleased those who voted for them, 2/9
and yet the size of that vote caused #Cameron & the #Conservatives to run scared, promising us a referendum on the #EU which everyone thought would keep that voice quiet. Instead, it became the platform and enabler for the many years of suppresssion. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
OK, now I stop the jokes and get serious on #SOTEU and #JHA (opens thread). @JunckerEU: "We are proposing to extend the tasks of the newly established European Public Prosecutor’s Office to include the fight against #terrorist offences."
I'm still sceptic about the original role of the #EPPO (financial offences to #EU money) and how that is going to pan out in the future (more on this soon, part of the @CER_EU's upcoming work on #JHA). I'm even more sceptic about proposals to use it for #AML. But terrorism?
This has been an old aspiration of federalists and others: some sort of a central EU criminal prosecutor (and criminal code, for what matters) to deal with cross-border crime. But that is absolutely unfeasible right now. See the latest difficulties in judicial co-operation.
Read 5 tweets
Iranian militias in #Syria
By the beginning of 2012, with the increasing peaceful demonstrations the #IRGC began to feel the danger to the regime of its ally Assad and the major schisms within the #Assad army. Opposition sources estimate the number of dissidents at 150,000.1/12
Because of Assad's field losses, Tehran gave orders to #Hezbollah terrorist militia to conduct military intervention to save #Assad. It was the first direct military presence of the militia in southern #Damascus and the vicinity of Damascus International Airport.2/12
#Iran #USA
Over time, the #IRGC has established a number of trained, financially and militarily supported militias from #Tehran that are spread over a number of Syrian provinces from #Aleppo to #Daraa.3/12
#Iran #Syria #USA #Israel #IDF #Russia
Read 13 tweets
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