Here’s a THREAD with some big news from me and @CntrFutureWork: We are going GLOBAL! This month we are opening a new office in Vancouver, Canada, where we will conduct great progressive research on #FutureOfWork issues in Canada, and around the world …2
Our @CntrFutureWork team in Australia is still working full speed ahead on Aussie labour issues: focusing now on the impacts of #COVID19, the JobKeeper program, IR changes & more. @ak_pennington, @Dan_Nahum and me will keep churning it out with our partners at @TheAusInstitute…3
With our new Cdn office, we'll now be doing similar work in Canada. We’ll look at how work is changing, and how to make it better. We’ll cover technology, gig work, wage stagnation, precarity, collective bargaining & more. Please visit our website: centreforfuturework.ca …4
We're opening our Canadian office in collaboration with our friends at the @ccpa, where I have long served as a voluntary Research Associate. Our office will be located in shared space with the @CCPA_BC team & we'll work on many joint projects together …5
A focus for our initial work is a very exciting project called #PowerShare. It's a multi-year research project, in partnership with @AtkinsonCF & the @ccpa, to study how to shift power relationships in the #FutureOfWork …6
Amidst all the hoopla about new technology & digital business models, and knee-jerk advice that workers just need to ‘get more skills’ and ‘become more flexible’, one key issue is typically ignored. The #FutureOfWork discourse doesn’t pay nearly enough attention to *power* …7
Technology isn't inherently good or bad; it can help workers, or hurt them. It all depends on who makes the decisions, and who has power to advance their interests. #PowerShare will study the determinants of workers’ power to advance demands for better work--and win them …8
Our 1st #PowerShare report, coming this spring, will focus on the #COVID19 crisis & how it must change work ‘for good’ (in both senses of that term!). There are many ways the pandemic should lead to better, safer, fairer work. We'll investigate concrete ways to achieve that ...9
I'm super excited to jump back into #cdnecon debates! Our Cdn office of @CntrFutureWork, & the great partnerships we're building, will help to win a better future for work, & workers. To stay in touch, please sign up for our Cdn contact list at: centreforfuturework.ca/contact/. END
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Just in time for Prime Minister Carney's meeting with Donald Trump, I have analyzed new U.S. Census Bureau data on bilateral Canada-U.S. trade (now including full-year 2024 results). Full analysis here: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2progressive-economics.ca/2025/05/latest…
The U.S. bilateral trade deficit with Canada shrank 12% in 2024, to just $35.7b (U.S.). That's a small fraction of the inflated numbers ("$100 billion, $200 billion, $300 billion") that Trump just makes up. /3
Relative to U.S. GDP, which has been growing quickly in nominal terms, that bilateral deficit has been halved since 2022 (largely due to lower oil prices), falling to 0.12% in 2024. Even the U.S. global deficit is a much smaller share of GDP (3.1% in 2024) than in the 2000s. /4
Certain partisans have been citing Canada's performance on per capita GDP as evidence of a supposed 'lost decade' and economic mismanagement. In @IRPP Policy Options, I deconstruct this arbitrary and misleading statistic, in two parts. #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2
Part I: The numerator of 🇨🇦's per capita GDP has done reasonably well: 2nd best GDP growth in the G7 over the last decade. The denominator (population) has grown unusually fast (esp. since 2021), and that is what has suppressed the value of the ratio. /3policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/apri…
I also show flaws in the methodology of calculating per capita GDP. The world leaders in per capita GDP are all tax havens: that's phony. In Canada, Newfoundland & Labrador has above-avg per capita GDP (hence no equalization) despite lower personal incomes. A flawed measure! /4
Mr. Poilievre is resuscitating COVID-era arguments that inflation is a 'tax' (caused by Justin Trudeau's deficits and Tiff Macklem's ATM), and that he can 'cancel the tax' with federal spending cuts. Here are the top 4 reasons his economics are all wrong: #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2
1. International Comparisons: Post-COVID inflation was a global phenomenon, affecting almost all countries, with no correlation to deficits or government spending. Canada's inflation since 2019 has been relatively mild, well below the US and the OECD average. /3
2. Timing: The federal deficit (huge during COVID lockdowns) was approaching balance (in national accounts terms, which is what matters for macroeconomics) by the time inflation accelerated in latter 2021 and 2022. Purported 'excess demand' from CERB benefits was long gone. /4
Crude oil prices are down $14/b (20%) in the last week. Apart from acute embarrassment for Danielle Smith (who called Trump's tariffs last week a "big win for Alberta & Canada"), there's an important lesson to be learned here about how crude oil futures markets work. #cdnecon /2
This thread draws on analysis of oil futures markets from @futurework_cda's recent report, "Counting the Costs": . It computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years. /3 falseprofits.ca/reports
Prices for various specific crudes are set in relation to key benchmarks (mostly WTI & Brent) which are set on futures markets. Futures markets are financial markets. They don't trade in oil; they trade in contracts which are promises to deliver oil at some time in the future. /4
Trump says any car “not made in America” gets a 25% tariff. That means EVERY car gets a tariff, cuz there’s no such thing as a “car made in America.” Only cars made in NORTH America. Every one of which has a lot of 🇨🇦🇺🇸 and 🇲🇽 content in it. #cdnecon /2
More Americans will be hurt by this than Canadians and Mexicans, cuz far more Americans are employed making North American cars… and their plants will all be screwed up by this, too. /3
Trump’s musings about pro-rating the tariff to reflect US parts content in imported vehicles, all by next Wednesday, are laughable. It would take years and enormous data & bureaucracy to set up a system like that. These clowns can’t even run a private group chat. /4
“Who’s Subsidizing Whom?” I have written a new report for the Centre for Future Work @futurework_cda rebutting Trump’s arguments that the U.S. “subsidizes” Canada through its bilateral trade deficit: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli #canlab /2centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…
First, that deficit is 1/5 as large as Trump claims ($40bUS not $200b), US trade is more balanced with us than other partners (they sell us 92c for every $ they buy) & a deficit isn’t a “subsidy” anyway. Their big surplus in services offsets much of the deficit in merchandise. /3
In fact I identify 3 ways Canada-US trade diverges from normal practice. In effect, these are ways WE subsidize THEM: 1. Cheap secure oil, with access for US corp's to profit 2. Huge services imports--underreported, largely untaxed 3. Cheap credit to help finance their deficit /4