#Covid19India
Adding the % Positives to # Daily Tests angle to the Testing being reported by States.
For India aggregated from the States performance, the n-fold growth of # cases reported is near-perfectly matched by the growth of tests, positives growing much faster.
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Adding the % Positives to # Daily Tests angle to the Testing being reported by States.
For India aggregated from the States performance, the n-fold growth of # cases reported is near-perfectly matched by the growth of tests, positives growing much faster.
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#Covid19India
As rough indicators of prevalence, these two charts strongly suggest that testing has not grown enough - on aggregate - to account for intensive contact tracing. Nor has it expanded enough to check asymptomatics or community transmission.
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As rough indicators of prevalence, these two charts strongly suggest that testing has not grown enough - on aggregate - to account for intensive contact tracing. Nor has it expanded enough to check asymptomatics or community transmission.
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#Covid19India
As discussed elsewhere, testing should scale to a level where the % positives consistently yields a level of 2% or below and drops further as testing is increased.
There are some Indian states which have indeed ramped up and maintained to such levels.
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As discussed elsewhere, testing should scale to a level where the % positives consistently yields a level of 2% or below and drops further as testing is increased.
There are some Indian states which have indeed ramped up and maintained to such levels.
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#Covid19India
Andhra Pradesh is one such state. Which likely explains its success in maintaining suppression of daily new counts below 100 over a period of time. Reflected in the % positives to # daily tests as well as the n-fold growth of tests relative to positives.
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Andhra Pradesh is one such state. Which likely explains its success in maintaining suppression of daily new counts below 100 over a period of time. Reflected in the % positives to # daily tests as well as the n-fold growth of tests relative to positives.
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#Covid19India
Bihar has done the complete opposite of Andhra Pradesh. Observe the spike of new cases and their rising levels since the 16th of April.
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Bihar has done the complete opposite of Andhra Pradesh. Observe the spike of new cases and their rising levels since the 16th of April.
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#Covid19India
Delhi has managed to keep testing growth higher than that of the rate of growth of positives. However, as can be seen from the challenge posed by the latest slew of new cases, it has been not enough. The % positives for the # daily tests is well above 4%.
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Delhi has managed to keep testing growth higher than that of the rate of growth of positives. However, as can be seen from the challenge posed by the latest slew of new cases, it has been not enough. The % positives for the # daily tests is well above 4%.
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#Covid19India
Gujarat actually reduced its testing growth in response to rising positives growth. To the extent that counts of positives have grown 6x while test counts have grown only 3x. Observe the unchecked growth of new cases and % positives level higher than 6%.
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Gujarat actually reduced its testing growth in response to rising positives growth. To the extent that counts of positives have grown 6x while test counts have grown only 3x. Observe the unchecked growth of new cases and % positives level higher than 6%.
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#Covid19India
Haryana has maintained testing growth rate well elevated above the positives growth rate. Which is reflected in the % positives being well under 2% for most of the series. And the suppression of new cases well below 30. The last spike offers a challenge though.
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Haryana has maintained testing growth rate well elevated above the positives growth rate. Which is reflected in the % positives being well under 2% for most of the series. And the suppression of new cases well below 30. The last spike offers a challenge though.
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#Covid19India
J&K, likewise, has maintained an elevated testing growth rate. The n-fold growth of tests over that of positives is presently 15:1. Observe the dailies level well suppressed under 40. Note the % positives declining to below 1% with increase of daily tests.
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J&K, likewise, has maintained an elevated testing growth rate. The n-fold growth of tests over that of positives is presently 15:1. Observe the dailies level well suppressed under 40. Note the % positives declining to below 1% with increase of daily tests.
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#Covid19India
Karnataka responded well to the surge of new cases in mid-April by accelerating and thereafter maintaining an elevated growth rate of testing. Reflected in new case dailies staying below 40. And % positives declining to below 0.2% with increase of daily tests.
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Karnataka responded well to the surge of new cases in mid-April by accelerating and thereafter maintaining an elevated growth rate of testing. Reflected in new case dailies staying below 40. And % positives declining to below 0.2% with increase of daily tests.
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#Covid19India
Kerala remains an exemplar in how things are done. The n-Fold growth of positives has actually declined to 0.14x of its original value while testing has grown to 1.6x. That's really being effective. % positives are now down to 3 in 790 daily tests. #DoTheMath
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Kerala remains an exemplar in how things are done. The n-Fold growth of positives has actually declined to 0.14x of its original value while testing has grown to 1.6x. That's really being effective. % positives are now down to 3 in 790 daily tests. #DoTheMath
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#Covid19India
MP has been inconsistent and twice declined testing growth allowing new case counts to cross 200 per day. Of late, the n-Fold growth of tests has started occurring which is pushing the % positives to below 1% levels.
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MP has been inconsistent and twice declined testing growth allowing new case counts to cross 200 per day. Of late, the n-Fold growth of tests has started occurring which is pushing the % positives to below 1% levels.
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#Covid19India
Maharashtra has been unable to (capacity constraints?) raise its testing to match the demands of the spread in its territory. % positives have consistently remained over 6% and the latest spike is 17.% with 2551 positives out of 14510 daily tests.
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Maharashtra has been unable to (capacity constraints?) raise its testing to match the demands of the spread in its territory. % positives have consistently remained over 6% and the latest spike is 17.% with 2551 positives out of 14510 daily tests.
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#Covid19India
This last surge of new cases seriously threatens to upend Punjab's containment efforts.
% positives which were stably maintained below 3% has now risen to well over 5%. The n-Fold growth of tests (9x) has fallen behind that of positives (30x).
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This last surge of new cases seriously threatens to upend Punjab's containment efforts.
% positives which were stably maintained below 3% has now risen to well over 5%. The n-Fold growth of tests (9x) has fallen behind that of positives (30x).
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#Covid19India
Rajasthan's ramp-up-as-needed method had been holding daily new case counts at an average of 100 per day. The n-Fold Testing growth is, however, barely above that of positives.
At risk for containment failure due to clusters/superspreaders.
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Rajasthan's ramp-up-as-needed method had been holding daily new case counts at an average of 100 per day. The n-Fold Testing growth is, however, barely above that of positives.
At risk for containment failure due to clusters/superspreaders.
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#Covid19India
Tamil Nadu grew its testing rate well over that of the positives after dealing with the superspreader event. However, a decline in the rate with time has, of late, rendered it vulnerable to the new case surges as is happening now. % positives are rising high.
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Tamil Nadu grew its testing rate well over that of the positives after dealing with the superspreader event. However, a decline in the rate with time has, of late, rendered it vulnerable to the new case surges as is happening now. % positives are rising high.
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#Covid19India
UP is now raising its testing levels - seen in the growth rate chart with the growth rate of positives as also in the n-Fold growth charts, relatively. The result is seen with the % positives declining below 2% and holding of late with increase in daily tests.
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UP is now raising its testing levels - seen in the growth rate chart with the growth rate of positives as also in the n-Fold growth charts, relatively. The result is seen with the % positives declining below 2% and holding of late with increase in daily tests.
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#Covid19India
While West Bengal's data remains in Q, the reported data - by itself - offers no reassurance. Of late - in response to the rising levels of new cases - it seems to have boosted testing levels.
% positives show no consistency beyond the 2K daily tests mark.
While West Bengal's data remains in Q, the reported data - by itself - offers no reassurance. Of late - in response to the rising levels of new cases - it seems to have boosted testing levels.
% positives show no consistency beyond the 2K daily tests mark.
