China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) Profile picture
May 8, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
To ensure growth of 3%+, #China needs expansionary fiscal&monetary policies. CASS estimates the infrastructure investment required for imposing expansionary #fiscalpolicies amid the #pandemic will need to be way higher than the RMB 4 trillion package. By Yu Yongding at CASS
With fiscal deficits rising, many are opposed to stimulus like the RMB 4 trillion package in 2008, worrying that fiscal deficit would surge and push up government #debt. But it doesn't necessarily mean that China shouldn't take more expansionary policies than in 2009, because:
1. Its debt is much lower than many developed countries;

2. People worry about high leverage because lenders are afraid that borrowers will default and stop lending, triggering sovereign debt crisis, but that’s unlikely in China;
3. Changes in leverage depend on relative fluctuations in ourstanding national debt and GDP. China's priority is to speed up growth, not to lower leverage;

4. Although Chinese government's leverage is relatively low, that of its businesses is very high;
5. A high leverage ratio in the economy is not necessarily a bad thing.

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More from @ChinaFinance40

Feb 22, 2023
According to CF40’s latest macroeconomic quarterly report ‘China's Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Sustainability of Government Debt’, China has never heavily relied on budgetary spending to provide counter-cyclical stimulus. 1/5
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Statistics show that such a model has helped China stabilize its economic growth, but also increased the broad government debt to GDP ratio, raising concerns about the sustainability of government debt. 3/5
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Feb 22, 2023
China could consider implementing negative individual income tax (IIT) to boost consumption and employment, advises CF40 research department. 1/4
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Feb 21, 2023
The PBC's "benign neglect," an indirect policy tool devised in 2022 to influence the value of the RMB, was quite successful. It allows the market to determine the exchange rate while retaining capital controls as a last resort.1/5
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China should maintain a floating exchange rate regime to bring out its role as an automatic stabilizer while maintaining necessary capital control as a last resort.3/5
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Feb 17, 2023
Despite the shrinking working-age population, there is a tremendous pool of surplus rural labor in China., said Caifang, Chief Expert of National Think Tank of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 1/5
Many analysts predict that China will not have a rapid growth rate in the future or emerge as the largest economy in the world because its working-age population and total labor have stopped growing. 2/5
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Feb 16, 2023
#China could consider implementing negative individual income tax (IIT) to boost consumption and employment, suggests CF40 Research Department in a 2022 policy brief ‘Negative Individual Income Tax: Some Thoughts on Policies to Drive Employment and Consumption’. 1/4
It means that the government provides taxpayers with a certain amount of subsidy when the level of working income is lower than a given threshold. 2/4
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Feb 3, 2023
Given China’s macroeconomic environment in December 2022, the following policies should be taken to boost China’s economic growth and deal with potential risks, said ZHANG Bin, CF40 Nonresident Senior Fellow: 1/5
1. Lower interest rate by 25 bps each time until the employment and growth targets are hit.
2. Issue new types of fiscally subsidized bonds and policy loans to support investment in public goods and quasi-public goods infrastructure projects that feature limited returns.2/4
3. Set up special funds to help market entities battered during the pandemic get back on their feet; increase the amount of living allowance for low-income groups. 3/5
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