Sadly, we’ve progressed from “testing would be nice” to “nasty tests sometimes are negative and then positive so they’re not great.” It’s now clear we have to ease the harshest restrictions as carefully as possible, but in the absence of widespread testing and contact tracing.
I wish that weren’t the case. I wish we’d used the harsh measures imposed in March to rapidly ramp up public health infrastructure and testing capacity so the sacrifices made would result in a lasting reduction in deaths.
Each day we keep the harshest possible restrictions in place this spring/summer will make it harder to re-impose some or all of them when they may be most needed in fall/winter.
Some suggest #SocialDistancing is a waste unless we wait for a sustained reduction in cases (which social distancing alone cannot achieve) or a massive ramp-up of #TestTraceIsolate (which states alone cannot implement). But it's not wasted and we're not abandoning it.
Social distancing orders can & should be calibrated to allow a sustainable balance b/w keeping close contacts outside home way below baseline & allowing some degree of careful economic, social & cultural activity to resume.
Bans on large gatherings, limits on bar & restaurant service, limits on places people tend to congregate indoors, density restrictions, and accommodations to work & school from home can be more sustainable long-term than prohibition on all nonessential activity outside home.
It's also critical to keep pushing for supports & accommodations - #PPE should be widely available for workers & general public, accommodations to school/work from home wherever possible, income & food support for people hurting economically, freeze evictions & utility shut-offs.
As @MelindaBBuntin argued, we must rapidly assess which measures (not just closures/restrictions, but also nudges, accommodations & supports) have the greatest impact on #FlatteningtheCurve while minimizing 2ndary harms. Context matters & varies locally.
jamanetwork.com/channels/healt…
jamanetwork.com/channels/healt…
