Thread by @BethRigby

Govt 50-page “Covid-19 Recovery Strategy”
- It sets out “plan to rebuild UK for a world with Covid-19. It’s not a quick return to ‘normality’. Nor does it lay out an easy answers. And, inevitably, parts of this plan will adapt as we learn more about this virus” Thread 1/

It clear only LT-term solution is vaccine or drug-based treatment
- “While we hope for a breakthru, hope is not a plan”. Vaccine/treatment could be yr away
- In a “worst case scenario, we may never find a vaccine”
- We must countenance situation where we’re in for long haul 2/

PM: Current arrangements don’t provide enduring solution - the price is too heavy to our way of life, society, econ, LT public health.
- This plan seeks to return to life to as close to normal as poss, for as may people as poss, as fairly as poss, in a way that protects NHS 3/

PM: If we get this right we will minimise death... we will maximise our economic and societal bounce-back: allowing more people to get one with more of their normal lives & & get our economy working again 4/

Current situation
- At the beg epidemic between 2.7-3.0. R now 0.5-0.9
- NO regions in country where epidemic appears to be increasing
- May 9 estimated 136,000 people currently infected by Covid-19
- 27% of NHS ICU beds occupied by CV patients compared with 51% on Apr 10 5/

Current situation
- Excess deaths this yr 37,151 higher than av for 2015-19
- Govt cannot protect every job/bis. Around 1.8m households made claims for UC between Mar 18 & Apr 28
- Longer virus affects the economy, the greater the risk of LT scarring & perm lower ec activity 6/

Moving to next phase
- R below 1 but ‘potentially only just below 1”
- Govt cannot be confident that major adjustments now will not risk 2nd peak. “Govt only in a position to lift cautiously elements of the existing measures”
- Diff parts of UK have different R figures. 7/

Challenges ahead
1/ This not short term crisis. “likely CV will circulate long-term” possibly causing periodic epidemics
2/ In near term no drastic changes. Sage model - opening schools/relaxing social distancing now will lead o resurgence
3/ There is no easy or quick solution 8/

Challenges ahead
4/ In med-term allowing virus to spread until natural population-level immunity wld put NHS under enormous pressure. *At no point has this been part of the govt’s strategy*
5/ Must get cases down
6/ Understanding virus dev’ing rapidly 9/

Challenges ahead
7/ Govt must prepare for challenges winter flu season will bring
8/ Plan depends on widespread compliance from the pubic 10/

The approach. Phased recovery
- There will be 2 phases. As govt develops ‘smarter controls’ it can gradually replace existing restrictions. These will be in periodic ‘steps’ over the next weeks and months
- Phase 3 will be reliable treatment/vaccine 11/
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Phase two: Smarter controls
- Making contact safer (redesigning work spaces, self isolation)
- Reducing infected people’s social contact (test/track/trace)
- Stopping hotspots *detecting outbreaks at localised levels and intervening* 12/

The clinically vulnerable will have to continue to shield
And a “differentiated approach to risk” - govt will make risk assessment more nuanced as it learns more about the disease (will different groups be given different advice?) 13/

Road Map - applies from Weds 13
1/ WORK foreseeable future workers should stat at home. All those who cannot should go to work if their workplace open
2/ SCHOOLS - June 1 some kids may go back. Govt wants all primary kids to return to sch before the summer for mth if feasible

3/Face coverings
- People should wear face masks on public transport or shops where social distancing not possible

4/ Public spaces
- Go outdoors with not more than 1 person from outside your hh
- No use of playgrounds/outside gyms
- People can drive irrespective of distance

4/ Public spaces
- Govt says people must NOT travel to different parts of the UK where it would be inconsistent with guidance or regulations of devolved administrations
16/

international travel
- Govt will introduce series of measures & restrictions at border
- Govt will require international arrivals not on a short list of exceptions to self-isolate for 14 says on arrival to UK
- Measure won’t come into force this wk. More detail to follow 17/

Step Two > June 1
- Sch: Prepare to open. Yr 1 & 6 back 1st. All primary back for one month b4 hols. Sec sch only year 10 & 12 will have face to face contact
- Culture/sporting events allowed behind closed doors
- Open non-essential retail (not hospitality or personal care) 18/

Social/family contact
- Sage looking at whether it can change regs to allow people to *expand household group to include one other hh*
- Govt looking at allowing people to gather in larger groups to facilitate small weddings
- Govt will engage on timing/nature of measures 19/

Step 3. No earlier than July 4. These could all open:
- hairdressers and beauty salons
- hospitality - food service providers, pubs markets accommodation
- Places of worship
- leisure facilities such as cinemas
Govt will carefully phase & pilot re-openings 20/

The full document is here if you want to read it >>
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…