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We've updated our @CarbonBrief CMIP6 explainer to include the latest climate sensitivity results (via @mzelinka).

Thirteen CMIP6 models (in yellow) have sensitivity higher than the 1.5C-4.5C AR5 range, while the 27 models (in blue) remain within it.

carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next…
Note that the historical runs section has not been updated yet, but will be in the future!
Also (because why not):
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
The decarbonization of the global economy has sped up over the past 9 years, after pausing during much of the 2000s (when countries – led by China – invested heavily in coal). If this trend continues we soon reach point where the economy is decarbonizing faster than its growing.
(Looks like $USD caused formatting issues in the y-axis; here is a fixed version):
Note there are some differences between results using GDP in MER vs PPP units. @Peters_Glen has a good post on this from a few years back: cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima…
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Due to COVID-19, there is a real chance that 2019 will be the year in which global CO2 emissions peaked.

If trends in GDP growth and decarbonization had continued emissions would have peaked around 2024. Now there is a real chance they won't ever return to 2019 levels. 1/3
This simple initial analysis uses 10-year trends in GDP and CO2/GDP and projects them forwards. It also uses the 2020 and 2021 IMF COVID-19 base case and longer outbreak GDP numbers to get a 4.9% and 7.8% reduction in 2020 emissions, similar to other estimates. 2/3
Of course, there is a real chance that GDP growth will be more rapid in the years after 2021 than historical rates that I'm assuming as economies recover, so its still possible we could see 2023 or 2024 emissions be above 2019 levels. Its too early to know for sure! 3/3
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Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Excellent article by @gcarbonproject team in @NatureClimate on COVID-19 effects on CO2. Its nice to see both bottom-up energy use and top-down GDP-based estimates agreeing on likely 2020 emissions reductions under both a low (quick recovery) and high (extended outbreak) scenario:
Here is a full timeline of all the various estimate of likely COVID impacts on 2020 CO2 emissions. Links to each can be found in here: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/…
Some good coverage of the new @gcarbonproject paper by @chriscmooney, @brady_dennis, and colleagues in the @washingtonpost today: washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
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