Thread by @davidasinclair

Outlook for this decade: POOR
1. 85% of economic impact is caused by fear of the virus not by stay-at-home. 2. WHO says the virus may never leave, like HIV. If true, we are in serious trouble. 1/n

Let’s not ignore the likelihood that survivors “will be left with chronic kidney & heart problems”, something the pro-herd immunity folks don’t consider. If you think spending 17% of US GDP on healthcare is bad now...2/n

We have also seen that leadership matters. NZ & Australia stopped movement, enforced it & tested and traced asymptomatics. They couldn’t even buy a coffee & are now essentially covid-free. US & Britain waited, let people travel & didn’t test & trace. We see the consequences. 3/n

Because the US & Britain didn’t act decisively, or have enough tests, or enforce stay-at-home when it mattered most, they are now lepers, stuck with #COVID19 & forced to reopen for economic & political reasons. Many will die. The economy is unlikely to rebound. 4/n

Eight weeks ago, I said “I look forward to the roaring ‘20s.” I’m no longer so optimistic. 5/n

References:
Virus vs Economy: arxiv.org/pdf/2005.04630…
Virus here to stay:foxnews.com/health/coronav…
Physical damage: tinyurl.com/yaxf7ycj
US failure ti.me/35X9dRi