THREAD sharing my new piece @voxdotcom
1/ Uncertainty is a paralyzing feeling- yet during #covid19, we have no choice but to navigate it effectively.
How we do this- the decisions we make w/ limited information- will determine the fate of this epidemic
vox.com/2020/5/14/2125…
1/ Uncertainty is a paralyzing feeling- yet during #covid19, we have no choice but to navigate it effectively.
How we do this- the decisions we make w/ limited information- will determine the fate of this epidemic
vox.com/2020/5/14/2125…
2/ I've shared before that a central part of the frustration in this country is rooted in failed leadership. With people unsure of who to follow or what to believe, they fail to unite against a common enemy. They are left fighting each other.
3/ As a doctor, I am used to making critical decisions with limited information- the decisions we make at the bedside can often be matters of life and death, w/o time to wait.
We are primed to think in probabilities, framed in the language of risks/benefits.
We are primed to think in probabilities, framed in the language of risks/benefits.
4/ W/ #covid19, we are now stuck between two opposing forces-- acting carefully, and acting quickly.
Acting carefully depends on knowing the consequences of your action- we often won't.
Acting quickly means risking that you do more harm than good. At times, we likely will.
Acting carefully depends on knowing the consequences of your action- we often won't.
Acting quickly means risking that you do more harm than good. At times, we likely will.
5/ With every decision in this pandemic, risk/benefit is the calculus. With closing schools. With universal masking. You name it- that's the equation.
Once we accept that we are (and always have been) operating with trade-offs, it becomes slightly easier to choose what to do.
Once we accept that we are (and always have been) operating with trade-offs, it becomes slightly easier to choose what to do.
6/ Most importantly, we have to be OK with the possibility of being wrong. More critical is recognizing when you are, and changing course as quickly as you can. In an attempt to be perfect, we will waste time. We will never be perfect, but we do need to be good enough.
#covid19
#covid19
Sharing if of interest: how do we navigate decision-making under uncertainty in #covid19?
cc @CarolineYLChen @ashishkjha @zeynep @B_resnick @carlzimmer @mlipsitch @jeremyfaust @edyong209 @FranciscoMarty_ @balajis @jeffjarvis @venkmurthy @paimadhu @Atul_Gawande @JeremyKonyndyk
cc @CarolineYLChen @ashishkjha @zeynep @B_resnick @carlzimmer @mlipsitch @jeremyfaust @edyong209 @FranciscoMarty_ @balajis @jeffjarvis @venkmurthy @paimadhu @Atul_Gawande @JeremyKonyndyk
