I have been fascinated by the analogies in the use of scenarios for #COVID19 policies & climate policies. So many overlapping issues, but #COVID19 is on warp speed while climate takes decades.
@hollyjeanbuck has a post discussing some of the issues
1/
strelkamag.com/en/article/the…
@hollyjeanbuck has a post discussing some of the issues
1/
strelkamag.com/en/article/the…
"A curve ... can provide a frame, an instruction set, a kind of prescription for what governance is needed. Policy is then set out in order to bring reality into conformance with the curve."
[Sounds very familiar]
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[Sounds very familiar]
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"... the failures of governance by curve in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic must not repeat in the case of climate crisis mitigation"
A few examples follow.
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A few examples follow.
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"It is ... hard to explain concepts like “net-zero” or “negative emissions” without reference to this curve. ... “Negative emissions” are spoken of in reference to conceptual figures like these."
[CO₂ removal come to life, even if it remains rather conceptual at scale]
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[CO₂ removal come to life, even if it remains rather conceptual at scale]
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"The curve is an average of IAM runs, which have included negative emissions technologies as part of how to curb warming to 2°C. ... Many possible worlds are implied there, collapsed into one."
[Though, they are all somewhat similar in form]
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[Though, they are all somewhat similar in form]
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"In this [#SR15] depiction, you get to pick your curve. Many people like P1. P1 is a version where the world keeps warming to 1.5°C without CCS. However, there are a few challenges with it..."
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"In part because that decarbonization curve is so hard to deliver ... the so-called “peak shaving” diagram of a [solar geoengineering appeared] ... it can “buy time” for decarbonization, & shave the peak off of the climate impacts..."
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"the plot diagram for much of Western literature: the rising action-climax-falling action curve, a basic form that has been observed since Aristotle’s Poetics"
[a curve I had not seen...]
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[a curve I had not seen...]
8/
"Flatten the curve"
"Trying to make reality conform to the curve is an understandable narrative drive, but an incredibly simplistic way to govern complex systems."
Unfortunately, it is more complex...
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"Trying to make reality conform to the curve is an understandable narrative drive, but an incredibly simplistic way to govern complex systems."
Unfortunately, it is more complex...
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"In the case of the 2°C scenario, we might miss the effort involved—technical, economic, social—in building the massive carbon removal infrastructure."
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"In the case of peak-shaving stratospheric aerosol injections, we might miss the work involved with both carbon removal and mitigation, and the risk of failing to follow through with them."
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"And in the case of COVID-19, we might miss the collapse of a global economy—a complex system which is entangled with culture, health, and security, and not really just about an abstract “economy” at all."
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As Neil Ferguson (lead author of the Imperial College report) said “we don’t have a clear exit strategy... we’re going to have to suppress this virus—frankly indefinitely...”
The original report has curves that stretch into 2021.
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The original report has curves that stretch into 2021.
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"The result is a public that’s extremely confused about the aims of sheltering in place and the overall plan, and feeling like the goalposts have been changed—which is dangerous in a conspiracy-laden media ecosystem."
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"Th[e] ... curve has made people misunderstand the nature of the problem & its management. It’s not like you flatten the curve and the problem goes away."
"Flattening the curve pushes the deaths from the virus later in time, & in theory, minimizes deaths..."
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"Flattening the curve pushes the deaths from the virus later in time, & in theory, minimizes deaths..."
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"Second, the curve only captures one metric, typically deaths or hospital capacity... Deaths & hospital capacity are obviously important metrics. But the list of other things that policy must also contend with is long, and much harder to render as data..."
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"[T]he singular curve doesn’t encourage a conversation about choices in how the intervention is designed & deployed."
[The details matter & can have significant impacts. We are seeing this now (or will see) with weakening of restrictions in recent the days & weeks.]
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[The details matter & can have significant impacts. We are seeing this now (or will see) with weakening of restrictions in recent the days & weeks.]
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"The lesson here might be “multiple curves are better than one curve,” but even that accepts the contextual limitations. What’s really needed is a multidimensional operating space in which the systemic follow-on effects are identified in broad daylight."
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"This year may see a populist backlash against modeling, against the role of simulations or big data in policy."
Have a read of the post. I don't agree with all (or might nuance it differently), but lots of good & relevant points...
strelkamag.com/en/article/the…
/end
Have a read of the post. I don't agree with all (or might nuance it differently), but lots of good & relevant points...
strelkamag.com/en/article/the…
/end
