Thread by @pmdfoster

Er...suffice to say @DavidGHFrost
letter to @MichelBarnier
landed like a lead balloon in Brussels.

Mr Frost finds it "perplexing" that the EU will not give the UK a bunch of special treatment that will reduce costs of #brexit 1/

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier I am looking forward to @MichelBarnier reply... I imagine that it might say something about rules of origin, mutual recognition of professional qualifications, level playing fields etc. /2

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier The point about the UK 'ask' is that - as @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines will explain is that, in aggregate, they amount to more than 'Canada' or 'Japan'. /3

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines So take just one EG - 'rules of origin' which determins which products are sufficiently 'local' in content to get zero or low tariff access...see Anna here on UK 'ask' to include 'content' from other EU FTA partners. ie Triangulation /4

https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1262723059317956609

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines So UK gets to protected integrated supply chains - ie keep lots of the benefits of current arrangements, arguing that's in 'interests' of both sides. But that's a big 'ask' from EU - it would set precedent and anyway, EU sees change to take UK market share /5

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines That's just one example, but across the piece - NZ Vet deals, Ro-Ro traffic smoothing, recognising professional qualifications - there is lots of goods stuff the UK wants that is 'more than Japan and Canada.

And as @SamuelMarcLowe keeps saying - quite rightly! /6

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines But there are no free lunches, so round and round we go, back we got to the EU argument of the 'size and proximity' of the UK and the need to be sure of a 'level playing field' with the UK.

This is a negotiation, so the EU aint giving its cards away /7

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines There clearly are landing zones here, but they can't be accessed by the UK saying (disingenuously) they 'only want' CETA or EU-Japan when in aggregate the want more than that - which itself speaks to the reality that UK can see the costs of erecting barriers to trade. /8

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines So which is it? The full buccaneer - Global Britain ruling the waves (increasingly turbulent now with Trump and #COVID19) or a close trading relationship with the the market that takes 43% of UK exports? After four years we still seem to be in the 'cake zone' /9

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines What's amazing is how history of these negotiations repeats itself - red lines, long stand-offs etc - and then an 'autumn crunch' in which the UK acquaints itself with the costs of conflating the trade agenda with the sovereignty agenda. Round and round we go. /10

@DavidGHFrost @MichelBarnier @SamuelMarcLowe @AnnaJerzewska @DavidHenigUK @DmitryOpines FWIW I think there can be a deal, there should be a deal, suspect there probably will be a deal (though that is becoming an increasingly minority position) but I still don't believe that the EU side can be bluffed and bullied into it. The asymmetries are too big. We'll see. ENDS