Thread by @thomasjuneau

There have been recent reports on Iran's role in Syria: that it has cost $20-30 billion since 2011 and that Iran "wants some of that back", and that Iran may be withdrawing. Quick thread on this.
-$20-30 billion cost? Just because an Iranian MP said this... (1/8)

...does not make it true. But the number (about $2-3 billion/year) is plausible given what we know of Iran's involvement.
-Contrast that to Saudi Arabia's cost of maybe $2-3 billion per *month" in Yemen (maybe more) and you get an idea of the spectacular ineffectiveness... (2/)

... of Saudi foreign policy (ie, for at least 10 times cheaper, Iran more or less achieved its objectives in Syria - Assad survived - while Saudi is not achieving much in Yemen).
-Iran "wants some of that back"? I interepret that as implying that Iran expects... (3/)

...a return on its investment. Not checks to reimburse it, but a strong presence in key economic sectors in Syria, for example, notably for companies linked to the Revolutionary Guards. Watch this space - this is where many post-war battles in Syria will be played out... (4/)

... within the Syria regime, and with Iran and Russia: who dominates post-war Syria, and who has access to the spoils of victory. This will be a tough fight.
-Finally, is Iran withdrawing from Syria? No - there are no indications of an important shift. That said... (5/)

..., it is plausble that Iran may be marginally reducing its presence in Syria, for a few reasons:
-Most important, the war is not over but it is winding down. This war has been a costly quagmire for Iran; it started small and then became a textbook case of mission creep... (6/)

... so it is normal for Iran to withdraw some of its elements as the war slowly winds down.
-And yes, Iran is under pressure: economically (sanctions, its own mismanagement, now the pandemic), domestically (protests, corruption, etc) and militarily (Israeli strikes)... (7/)

...so that gives it further incentive to limit its presence. But that does not amount to a strategic shift or a significant withdrawal, only a normal and predictable recalibration.

For more on Iran's role in Syria, my article for @Medit_Politics (end):

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…