My hypothesis on tonight:
-Iran knows every inch of Al-Asad and Erbil bases & knew US troops were secure; it purposely avoided them. Its short range missiles are precise enough to do that. Iran is fine with Iraqi casualties (it's happy to fight the US to the last Iraqi) (1/3)
-Iran knows every inch of Al-Asad and Erbil bases & knew US troops were secure; it purposely avoided them. Its short range missiles are precise enough to do that. Iran is fine with Iraqi casualties (it's happy to fight the US to the last Iraqi) (1/3)
-Iran gambled this would *not* trigger a US reponse
-remember, Iran absolutely wants to avoid an escalation it knows it would lose
-I wouldn't even be surpised if Iran signaled this to the US through some backchannel tonight (2/3)
-remember, Iran absolutely wants to avoid an escalation it knows it would lose
-I wouldn't even be surpised if Iran signaled this to the US through some backchannel tonight (2/3)
-I obviously can't prove this but it would be consistent with tonight's event (Iran can say it has retaliated for Soleimani; then no US response, no Trump speech)
-In this scenario, expect much Trump bluster & threats tomorrow
-but it would be an offramp acceptable to both (end)
-In this scenario, expect much Trump bluster & threats tomorrow
-but it would be an offramp acceptable to both (end)
And here is my earlier thread on tonight's events:
Of course, the huge unknown here is, well, Trump. As I wrote at the beginning of the thread linked above, he has clearly shown that he is very unpredictable, and precedent is of limited value to try to project future actions.
It's not definitive proof, this being Trump, but his tweet a few minutes ago sort of supports my hypothesis above (thanks to @AmarAmarasingam for pointing it out to me):
@AmarAmarasingam To be clear, IF (yes, a big if) Trump takes the offramp offered by Iran ("if you don't respond, we're done") and does not retaliate tomorrow, and the current crisis deescalates - it is NOT the end. Iran will still want to avenge Soleimani. There will be other, indirect measures.
And my first thread from last night:
