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The most important #COVID19 statistic for thinking about our public policy response is that 43% of all U.S. deaths have taken place among 0.6% of the population: those who live in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. forbes.com/sites/theapoth… @Forbes
To those asking about NY: I do discuss, in the article, NY's massaging of the numbers by not counting deaths in hospitals of nursing home residents. Key question for comparing NY to other states is: how many (and which) other states do the same thing?
On the positive side, I highlight Florida in the article. @GovRonDeSantis' team in Florida was on top of the nursing home problem in the beginning, and has the results to show for it. Read @RichLowry's interview of DeSantis for even more detail: nationalreview.com/2020/05/corona…
A non-New York example of how different reporting methods have drastic effects on the stats. Previously, in Ohio, the nursing home death stats only looked at deaths after April 15. Once they looked at deaths prior, nursing home share went from 41% to 70%. freopp.org/the-covid-19-n…
My @FREOPP colleague @GreggGirvan has a piece out today @thedispatch on how the #COVID19 nursing home crisis was 50 years in the making: bit.ly/36ysSr9
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Avik Roy
@Avik
The first map is the key map in terms of understanding the problems with a one-size-fits-all lockdown approach. Any approach to reducing #COVID deaths that doesn't make long-term care facilities its first priority is, at this point, not serious.
Remember that only 1.8% of U.S. residents live in nursing homes or assisted living facilities, and yet these facilities have tallied 42% of all #COVID19 deaths.
I've updated the map a second time to reflect new information out of Ohio (h/t @patpaule). Ohio added nursing home & assisted living deaths before April 15 to their totals, which now means that in Ohio, LTC facility deaths are 70% of all #COVID19 fatalities.
Read 8 tweets
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Avik Roy
@Avik
Great interview of Florida's @GovRonDeSantis by @RichLowry of how @RonDeSantisFL focused on the elderly, prevented hospitals from discharging actively infected patients into nursing homes, while reopening elsewhere. Even The Villages turned out fine! nationalreview.com/2020/05/corona…
@GovRonDeSantis @RichLowry @RonDeSantisFL So many great insights in the @RichLowry piece. DeSantis’s team actually prioritized sending PPE to nursing homes over sending PPE to hospitals, recognizing that nursing homes were seeding the outbreak that would lead to hospitalizations.
Another piece: Florida’s experience with natural disasters meant that it had a lot of reporting/data infrastructure in place already, including daily reports from nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and hospitals.
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Avik Roy
@Avik
New @FREOPP: There is no request I get more often than to compare the risk of fatality from #COVID19 vs. the flu by age bracket. So I’ve put one together, assuming 150,000 deaths from COVID vs. the 2007-17 average from influenza & pneumonia combined. bit.ly/2LBmtll
@FREOPP Assuming 150k #COVID19 deaths (the IHME mid-range estimate today), children are at much lower risk of dying from COVID vs. influenza or pneumonia. For those over 25, the relative risk is higher of death from COVID. But the *absolute* risk doesn’t get high until age 65:
If you’re looking at the first chart I posted (the one with the blue bars), a longer bar is “good” (i.e., relatively low risk of COVID death vs. influenza or pneumonia). A shorter bar is “bad” (relatively higher risk of COVID death). But absolute risk is most important.
Read 15 tweets

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