Thread by @trengriffin

It is wise to be careful when the magnitude of a mistake is huge.

"Anyone who sits on top of the largest hydrogen-oxygen fueled system in the world, knowing they’re going to light the bottom, and doesn’t get a little worried, does not fully understand the situation.”
John Young

In probabilistic exercises: "frequency of correctness does not matter; it is the magnitude of correctness that matters.” MM

25iQuiz: Local ski resort opens June 1 for "Spring Skiing." Reservations are required to manage crowds. What algorithm do you use to decide whether to go?

What are the factors you will use in deciding whether to participate in activities right now? The Lake of the Ozarks pool party is an obvious "no." What about other activities not so obvious? How much will you factor in age? What about the likely health of others participating?

What "margin of safety" do you apply in deciding what activities you do in 2020 given Covid-19? Do you use a discount rate in your math? Do you alter it to account for risk, uncertainty and ignorance? If you do alter your discount rate, is using a margin of safety redundant?

5/ Who said: "A margin of safety is [is intended to] allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.”

Clue: He wrote a book with the title amazon.com/Margin-Safety-… Why is a used copy selling for more than $1,000?

6/ Who said:

"Proper accounting is like engineering. You need a margin of safety. Thank God we don’t design bridges and airplanes the way we do accounting.”

Do bridge designers always use the right margin of safety? news.google.com/articles/CBMij…