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Why is the US police so lethal? One thing which sets the US apart is their number of guns in circulation. So I plotted the police killings with the number of registered firearms by state. There is a visible correlation.
1/
It is hard to understand how much the US stand out with their number of firearms in circulation without visualising it.
washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…
This large presence of firearms in the population makes policing dangerous.
The disproportionate use of pre-emptive violence by US police officers is likely influenced by the possibility for anybody to carry a gun.
cnbc.com/2020/06/01/geo…
One solution to protect the police force has been its militarisation. But the evidence does not necessarily support that it makes society and the police force safer.
The possibility to use excessive force can easily lead to things going wrong. This video from today is eye-opening about how poor judgements from a militarised police can be very dangerous.
Other factors certainly play a role, but the legal spread of firearms likely contributes to making the US society, and its police more violent.

Gun laws are primarily discussed to limit mass shootings. But, beyond, they could also help change the US police culture.
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Lionel Page
@page_eco
With just 107 new cases today, Australia’s rate of growth has fallen below 2%.
THREAD about the possible reasons this decrease has been so fast.
The growth of cases has always been low in Australia. The first case was on the 25th January (vs 21st in the the USA). Then for several weeks the epidemic only progressed slowly. It picked up pace in March, but never reached the levels of other countries (30% and above).
Is it due to tough policies?
No. Beside a very early ban on travel from China, Australia has not taken harsher measures than other countries. And international comparisons do not suggest a greater change in social behaviour in Australia.
Read 8 tweets
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Lionel Page
@page_eco
Australia has been remarkably successful at slowing down infections over the last few days. Today there were only 4% new confirmed cases!

THREAD about possible causes and what it means for other countries.
First: Is it just an artificial pattern following the closing of the borders? Does the end of new cases arriving from abroad masks a high rate of local cases?
No, the local rate of growth is small and decreasing too.
Second: Is it a case of lack of testing?
No, Australia has one of the highest rates of tests per capita in the World.
covid19data.com.au/testing
Read 7 tweets
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Lionel Page
@page_eco
Here is the explanation of the ‘homo economicus’ test!

The opportunity for a thread about what economists mean with the notion of economic ‘rationality’.

First, the test results:



(Thread)
Many seem to have interpreted it as a test of the ability to maximise expected value. The most chosen options are A & C in the poll 1 and B & D in poll 2 which maximise expected value.

Maximising expected value is rational, but you can also be rational with other choices.
Since the St Petersburg Paradox (Bernoulli, 1738), we know that valuing a gamble at its expected value can’t be the only acceptable solution.

Faced with a gamble with an infinite expected value (it’s possible!) people refuse to pay much to play it.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Peter…
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