Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Jun 2, 2020 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I expect Victoria Spartz and Christina Hale will win their #IN05 primaries in blowouts today. Spartz has run ads for months on local broadcast, highlighting endorsements from the Club for Growth, NRA, and Right to Life Indiana. Beth Henderson has had a few ads, but no one else.
Spartz portrayed herself as an outsider and hardliner Trump supporter; Henderson's ads tried to contrast her as an establishment conservative, even highlighting that she's "born in the USA" (Spartz was born in Soviet Ukraine and has a notable accent). I don't think it's worked.
Carl Brizzi has had a lot of negative ads dumped on him (highlighting his anti-Trump radio show comments), but has run no positive ads that I've seen. I have seen zero Kelly Mitchell ads, or ads from any other candidate. This has generally been a Spartz/Henderson race.
Spartz is the ideal Rep nominee for Dems to face in November. She is Mourdock-tier in terms of her right-wing rhetoric, voting record, and endorsements. This district is changing rapidly, and Spartz is a terrible fit for rapidly bluing northern Indy and Hamilton County suburbs.
By contrast, Christina Hale is the ideal Dem nominee for this race. She beat a Republican State Representative in a swingy north Indy seat in 2012 by 51 votes, survived 2014 51.5%-48.5% (a terrible year for Indiana Dems), and was our 2016 Lt. Gov nominee. Her profile is perfect.
Hale fits the socially progressive, fiscally moderate profile of the north Indy/Zionsville/Hamilton County suburbs, while Spartz is fully aimed at appealing to the cultural conservative voters in the northern rural and exurban areas. Madison County will be the key battleground.
The Republican primary has been bloody with a lot of attacks flying around. It will probably be difficult to unite all of the losers behind Spartz, further alienating suburban voters. Hale is finishing the primary with $500K COH; Spartz will mostly be fundraising from scratch.
Joe Donnelly won this district by 1.2% in 2018. While Dems have collapsed in northern rural, exurban, and mid-sized towns, Dems have seen explosive growth in north Indy, Carmel, Fishers, and Zionsville, maintaining equilibrium throughout IN-05. Map courtesy of @JMilesColeman . Image
The 2019 municipal elections saw Dems make big gains in south IN-05. While Hogsett won Indy Mayor with 72%, Dems picked up three Indy Council seats in IN-05. Dems picked up their first ever seats on the Carmel and Fishers city councils, and Dems flipped the Zionsville mayorship.
Dems also showed resilience in the north in 2019. Dems retained the Anderson and Marion mayorships 55-36 and 62-30 respectively. Dems also flipped Tipton mayor 60-40 in a massive shocker, and only lost Alexandria mayor 47-53. Dems are proving resilient throughout the district.
As we go into an election where Trump is proving deeply unpopular, Biden is poised to capitalize on a potential win here. Biden has the perfect profile for the south suburbs while also having legit blue collar appeal in Anderson and Marion. I think Biden can win IN-05.
Hale and Biden will have linked fates in this district, and I think both can win here assuming the wave continues to build. Hale has her work cut out for her, but a big cash advantage, a divided opposition and polarizing opponent, and demographic trends give her a serious chance.

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More from @AndrewPEllison

Jan 7, 2021
Tonight, after an attempted insurrection by Trump-supporting rioters, House Republicans still voted 121-83 to overturn Arizona's electoral votes. Democrats unanimously opposed this motion, causing it to fail 121-303. Notably, at least 33 previous supporters flipped to no votes.
The Republicans who previous supported lawsuits and objections, but voted no tonight, that stand out to me include Greg Pence (IN-06), Elise Stefanik (NY-21), Dan Crenshaw (TX-02), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), and most Pennsylvania Republicans, among many others.
There's a small possibility that a previous public supporter who flipped to a no vote tonight may have slipped through the cracks, because they weren't included on the lists I checked or for some other reason, but I think I got everyone.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 14, 2020
The results of our crowdsourced SurveyUSA Indiana poll are officially in, showing a single-digit presidential race, strong support for cannabis legalization and Roe v. Wade, and much more! Read the thread below for results and analysis! Link with crosstabs at the end. (1/25)
As a primer, SurveyUSA divides Indiana into four distinct regions for crosstab analysis. I've created this graphic to help visualize these four regions, along with the 2018 US Senate results by region for comparison, which show the benchmarks each party needs to reach. (2/25) Image
US President (Indiana)

Donald Trump (R): 49%
Joe Biden (D): 42%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 6%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(3/25)
Read 25 tweets
Sep 21, 2020
I think almost everyone underestimates how much Eric Holcomb is collapsing with conservative Indiana voters due to his mask mandate because the Governor's race has received zero national coverage. I think the Libertarian nominee likely has double-digit support right now. (1/25)
As a refresher, Eric Holcomb represents the establishment, "moderate" wing of the Indiana GOP. He was Mitch Daniels' deputy chief of staff, Indiana GOP Chairman (2011-2013), and Dan Coats' state chief of staff. Holcomb is a consummate insider. (2/25)
indystar.com/story/news/pol…
When Coats announced his retirement in March 2015, Holcomb left to run for his Senate seat. The campaign never got off the ground, with no grassroots support and much of the GOP establishment backing Todd Young to stop Tea Partier Marlin Stutzman. (3/25)
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 26 tweets
Sep 18, 2020
There has been much discussion in recent years about abolishing the Electoral College. #OTD 51 years ago, the US House approved an amendment 338-70 to abolish the EC and establish a two-round popular vote system. I created this map to show the partisan/regional breakdown. (1/7) Image
In the 1968 election, Richard Nixon won 301 electoral votes (56%), but only won 43.4% of the popular vote, beating Hubert Humphrey by 0.7%. After the similarly close 1960 election, this created concern about the Electoral College and spurred reform. (2/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Unit…
The Bayh-Celler amendment would have established a two-round popular vote system. The party who received the highest national popular vote would win the presidency if they won at least 40%. If no party won 40%, a runoff election would be held. (3/7)
library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/docu…
Read 8 tweets
Aug 31, 2020
In November 2019, Indiana held elections for mayor, clerk, and city council in all 120 cities (plus the town of Zionsville) plus hundreds of town elections. Dems made big city council gains in the Indy metro; Republicans won big in North Central and East Central Indiana. (1/7) Image
Dem mayoral flips include the Obama 2008 cities of Elkhart, Portage, Decatur, Tell City, and Dunkirk; and the McCain 2008 cities of Zionsville, Washington, Charlestown, Scottsburg, and Tipton. Big gains in Indianapolis, Carmel, Fishers, and Columbus city councils as well. (2/7)
Republican mayoral flips include the Obama 2008 cities of Muncie, Kokomo, Michigan City, Logansport, Connersville, Peru, Portland, Hartford City, Alexandria, Winchester, Oakland City, Rockport, and Jasonville, all predominantly white working class cities amenable to Trump. (3/7)
Read 8 tweets
Aug 22, 2020
(1/7) Here is my extended thread on the #MO01 Democratic primary. On August 4, activist @CoriBush defeated 10-term incumbent Lacy Clay in a rematch of their 2018 bout. Bush dropped some in her southwest base, but improved everywhere else, especially in Clay's northeast base. Image
(2/7) #MO01 has distinct racial divides due to the legacy of redlining and white flight. The famed Delmar Divide splits the district into distinct northern and southern halves. Note that Cori Bush has done better in the south, while Lacy Clay has done better in the north. Image
(3/7) Arguably an even bigger #MO01 dividing line between Lacy Clay and Cori Bush is educational attainment. In 2018, note that pockets of white voters with fewer Bachelor's degrees in the far south and northwest still voted for Clay. They mostly swung toward Bush in 2020. Image
Read 7 tweets

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