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⚠️Public health @ risk: Misinformation by @PMOIndia @NITIAayog @ICMRDELHI

❗️COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION on.
❗️UTTERLY LIMITED test capacity & medical facility.
❗️NO ESTIMATE FOR % ASYMPTOMATIC, not in India and not for global popn!
❗️still EARLY stage. \1
❗️PRE-SYMPTOMATIC ≠ ASYMPTOMATIC.
❗️Pre-symptomatic can be EXTREMELY contagious as symptomatic ones.
❗️ECOLOGICAL FALLACY is BLUNDER.
❗️Self-ISOLATION/QUARANTINE when suspicious of exposure to infection is MUST. \2
❗️AVERAGE w/o RANGE, CONFIDENCE INTERVAL (where relevant), and SAMPLE SIZE holds too little or NO meaning.
❗️There're LIMITS to STATISTICAL INFERENCE, which SHOULDN'T be ignored.
❗️FORGED data yields USELESS calculation w/ NO valuable inferences even if plots look PRETTY. \3
❗️Using mask, sanitizing hands, maintaining 6 ft distance w/ others ONLY reduce chances of getting infected. MISHANDLING of mask can BACKFIRE. OCULAR MUCOSA could be another potential route of transmission.
❗️CLOSED AREA major venue for transmission. AVOID mass GATHERING. \4
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सिद्धार्थ
@das_seed
❗️What're some of India's elite COVID19 calculators (@NITIAayog, @ICMRDELHI, majority of media) getting wrong? Here are some monumental blunders in elementary analysis of numbers related to COVID19 cases in India.
Rule 1: If facts are misrepresented, analysis will be wrong! /1
1. An ecological fallacy: 1st, we keep/kept deducing about the spread of infection in India by inferring global data (avg.).
Same at level of India, focused on average rather than local level data barring few states/districts. Need extensive analysis of data at local level. \2
Examples: We haven't done surveillance test or case study in India to estimate % of asymptomatic case, avg period of incubation, estimate for how much % of popn show symptoms in which week, avg recovery period from day of symptoms onset, etc. We apply arbitrary estimation .... \3
Read 12 tweets
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siddhartha
@das_seed
A thread. Even tax invoices (TI) sent to Ketto by @BosonMachines (BM) look cooked up (to misuse public donations?). Boson Machines have multiple major inconsistencies in their official letter (OL), dated April 30, to Ketto. Multiple self-contradictory points by Boson Machines. \1
A/c to OL: Rate per Face Shield (FS) is INR 120/- before April 14. After April 14, the rate was reduced to INR 75/- for FS from other vendors. Changing the design and manufacturing process FS price was reduced to INR 60/-.

Why huge price variations within a few days??? \2
Maths doesn’t add up: Total sales price a/c in tax invoice is INR 1199250/- (=4000*120+5550*75+5050*60), whereas page 2 of OL yields net sales price to be INR 1214250/- (=4000*120+6550*75+4050*60). Clear indication that even tax invoices were cooked up without due diligence. \3
Read 10 tweets
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siddhartha
@das_seed
#COVID19. Thread. How some individuals and/or groups are using adversity of pandemic probably for their selfish interests at cost of others' health/money/trust, with a case brought in light by @KushaKapila. Suspicion was raised by documents in ketto.org/fundraiser/hel… /1
Kusha said Boson Machines (BM) provided her with letter from a doc in LTMGH & LTMMC, Mumbai & claimed it to be approval for their face shield. This letter was meant to be letter of certification that face shield has passed the test/criteria. /2
Issue with this letter is that subject doesn't mention anything about authenticity and only discusses about donation request. Main content of letter is misleading as well. It states what doc probably heard from BM. "This device of your company has been designed in ... /3
Read 47 tweets

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