An early lockdown would have: 1. Minimised overall number of infections 2. Lowered R0 number 3. Saved lives 4. Reduced long term morbidity 5. Reduced burden on health services, allowing more non-#COVID19 services to have stayed open 6. Limited geographical spread around country
7. Allowed earlier release of lockdown 8. Reduced economic damage 9. Improved test, trace, isolate effectiveness 10. Bought more time and resources to help rebuild public health teams 11. Built trust in our political leaders, essential for ongoing public health messages
12. Increase the possibilty of preventing a second wave through ongoing stringent public health measures like test, trace, isolate, face masks etc whilst continuing to open up the economy over time 13. Buy more time to develop vaccine and more effective treatments #COVID19
14. Avoided the idiocy of a “herd immunity” without a vaccine policy, which was madness when we don’t know the natural history of this *novel* coronavirus 15. Prevented from having one of the world’s worst and most tragic responses to the #COVID19 pandemic
All of these reasons (and countless others) emphasise the catastrophic failure of leadership from #Johnson & #Cummings and the Conservative Government. We need a public inquiry now
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The #NHS is actually quite easy to improve. This is how you do it: 1. Vote out the Tories 2. Focus on the social determinants of health. Wealth inequality causes health inequality. Tax unearned wealth (rentier billionaires & tax evaders) 3. Invest and promote public health
4. Understand that health spending has a fiscal multiplier effect and promotes economic growth 5. Invest in social care services 6. Use monopsony (dominant buyer in healthcare market) power of NHS for procurement of drugs and medical technology 7. Abolish purchaser-provider split
8. Invest in General Practice and community services. GPs & community nurses play an incredibly important “gatekeeper” role. 9. Promote role of community pharmacists in managing common and mild illness eg viral infections 10. Ensure clinician involvement in all major IT projects
THREAD on #Consultants #Strike:
As a consultant oncologist, this is how I am going to support the strike:
I will work tomorrow because I have 2 MDTs, which can’t be cancelled because it would delay cancer treatment decisions by a week for about 80 patients. 1/
On Friday I have cancelled my radiotherapy planning clinic and my afternoon follow up clinic. I will enjoy a long weekend. However, all the patients will get seen tomorrow instead, with an extra ad hoc clinic and remote radiotherapy planning. 2/
I will lose a day’s pay on Friday, but I am going to claim BMA rates for my extra ad hoc clinic work, which will be paid at 3-4x my normal hourly rate. Hence cancer patients will not experience any delay or harm, and I will be financially better off!! 3/
THREAD: A tribute to Simon Stevens, outgoing #NHS CEO.
When I first heard Simon Stevens was going to be CEO of the NHS, I was convinced he was going to accelerate the privatisation of the NHS, as he was appointed by a Tory Government, and was formerly CEO of UnitedHealth 1/11
Over time, he has proved me wrong. In fact, I now believe he did an enormous amount of work to slow down #NHS privatisation, despite the concerted efforts of Lansley and Hunt to drive forward a Tory market driven agenda 2/11
He effectively ignored large swathes of Lansley’s Health and Social Care Act legislation, and broadly favoured NHS collaboration over competition & marketisation. He listened to the concerns of clinical leaders over and above his political masters 3/11
THREAD: We were a few hundred thousand votes away from the most powerful and militarized nation on earth becoming an authoritarian dictatorship. We must understand why we got so this close to this disaster. /1
In my opinion this is a direct result of neoliberal ideology, which has resulted in gross wealth inequality. The gap between rich & poor is higher than ever, leading to a large proportion of the population being left behind with poor prospects & enduring very difficult lives. /2
This leads to resentment, social unrest and distrust of Government. The appetite for scapegoats and blame is then ripe for manipulation by conspiracy theory and disinformation. The ideal environment to fuel right wing nationalism. /3
I disagree with the Barrington declaration for the following reasons:
1 We don’t know enough about natural history of #COVID19 eg what are long term complications? risks of re-infection? severity of re-infection?
2 Spread can occur via asymptomatic cases, increasing transmission
3. You can’t effectively cocoon the elderly population. Younger people live with, work with, and look after older people 4. Infection spreads like wildfire through care homes and nursing homes. It’s devastating 5. If R number gets out of control, the health system will collapse
6. High numbers of infections will also increase sickness absence from work, with damaging economic costs 7. #COVID19 disproportionately affects the poorest regions in the country
As a cancer specialist I think it’s important to respond to the #HealthSecretary’s comments about cancer treatment not being available if #COVID19 gets out of control. Firstly, it’s important to state that #Hancock and his own Government’s failures have contributed to the problem
Secondly, I think it’s unlikely that those in most need will miss out. We have learnt an enormous amount about managing cancer in a #COVID19 environment and are now much better prepared. At present we are managing generally very well, although surgical waiting lists are a problem
Non surgical cancer treatment like chemotherapy and radiotherapy is mainly outpatient based and we should be able to cope. Initial concerns about risks to patients on chemo have not turned out to be as serious as we first thought.