1/ #Tesla has earned ~$.5B from green credits in the last 2 years and $354M already this year in Q1, yet couldn't turn a profit for 4 consecutive quarters. What does COVID-19 has to do with this?
$TSLA $TSLAQ
$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Europe is currently the 2nd largest market for BEV's, and with the ~20-50% growth seen in most country markets in 1-5/2020, it's growing rapidly despite the virus. It's tough to see clearly how China looks like, but it's probably flattish. 
3/ Tesla earns most of its green credits via their FCA pooling agreement in Europe. FCA is merging with PSA, and, as of December 2019, they've planned to achieve CO2 compliance without the current pooling agreement with Tesla.
4/ (For those that are unaware: Europe is pushing down CO2 targets very aggressively and legacy OEM are struggling to meet these. Most will manage somehow, but FCA was late and had to pool with Tesla for the "credits". It's allowed to be part of 1 pool only, for $TSLA it's FCA).
5/ So as it stood last December, FCA barely needed any more credits from Tesla from 2021.
What has changed since? Well, the car market collapsed by 50-90%. But for BEV's, not so much: they still grew ~20-50% (except the Nordics, partly due to Tesla supply shortage).
What has changed since? Well, the car market collapsed by 50-90%. But for BEV's, not so much: they still grew ~20-50% (except the Nordics, partly due to Tesla supply shortage).
6/ The fact that the market is shrinking (most OEM's, including FCA expect a 25% decline in Europe in 2020) makes green "credits" less desirable. But BEV sales grows, adding to supply, decreasing the value of said "credits".
7/ This means that FCA will barely earn anything from FCA in 2021 in Europe, unless the contract entitles them to something (which would be surprising, and also the PSA merger could trigger a change of control clause). Even the $354M booked in Q1 could need to be reversed later.
8/ Other OEM's are in the same boat: they will barely need credits due to a better mix of BEV/ICE (BEV growing, ICE shrinking), and even if Tesla could find a buyer to its "credits" in 2021, it will be at much lower prices and volumes (if FCA lets them out of the pooling agrmnt).
9/ That way, we can conclude that credit revenues for Tesla from Europe will be at least much lower from 2021.
What changes in the US?
What changes in the US?
10/ Tesla's US sales is flat at best. By 2021, a few competitors have planned to enter the market, the Mustang being the most important, but Polestar, Rivian, Merc EQC, Mazda MX-30, VW ID.3/ID.4, Lexus UX300e, BMW ix3 and i4, Audi Q4 e-Tron and Volvo XC40 are all interesting.
11/ "Interesting" is the most we could have said about the majority of the above. But the lower European demand due to the virus could have created excess capacity. OEM's could put more focus on their US BEV sales. And, again, ICE sales will suffer in the US too.
12/ In the US, green credits can be freely sold, not along yearly pooling agreements. So market prices should follow market conditions very well. Lower ICE sales -> lower need for credits -> lower prices. Extra BEV supply -> lower need for credits & more supply -> lower prices.
13/ I'm not aware of any Chinese or other green credit schemes, so Tesla's credit sales are down to European and US ones.
14/ With Europe going down heavily (possibly to zero), maybe similar in the US, Tesla can very probably say goodbye to $500M+ of credit revenue, which has almost 100% margin contribution.
Addendum: I might have been wrong. Look at this thread too:
