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Which state will be the 1st to lockdown again?
8 leading candidates from their recent trends
data via covidexitstrategy.org
washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06…
Update from @COVID19Tracking today suggests the two states of highest concern are Arizona, with its steep rise in positive tests (>15.7% this week) and hospitalizations
and South Carolina with positive tests at 10.9% and rising hospitalizations
Texas is also of concern with positive test this week at 9.1% and spike in hospitalizations
Texas update
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
Unfortunately, as an outgrowth of a @WHO statement and @CNBC coverage today there is still significant confusion about the asymptomatic story. Conflation with pre-symptomatic status.
Let's first define these 2 groups
There is ample evidence that presymptomatic people commonly infect others, like this one @NatureMedicine
nature.com/articles/s4159… by @gmleunghku and @hkumed colleagues
Our @AnnalsofIM paper zoomed in on 16 cohorts to partition the presymptomatics vs asymptomatics, which was done by serial assessment in many of these reports
acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
and making a conservative estimate that ~40-45% of infected people don't (ever) develop symptoms
Read 6 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
A very good infographic on the 5 types of #SARSCoV2 vaccines and accompanying text
sandiegouniontribune.com/news/science/s… by @JonathanWosen @grobbins @sdutgraphics @sdut
And how the 135 efforts are spread across the world
@ms_gilchrist
For schematics of how they work, this one's hard to beat
media.nature.com/original/magaz… @nature @ewencallaway @nikinks @NatureNews
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
How can a virus leave some people without any symptoms and kill others?
A thread about #SARSCoV2 and what we know and need to do about asymptomatic infections
Starting with our @AnnalsofIM paper this week, w/ @danieloran
acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
We reviewed 16 different cohorts (Table)
3 were especially helpful for being representative (R) samples: Iceland, Vo-Italy, and Indiana
5 provided longitudinal (L) follow-up to help sort out the confounding issue of conversion from pre-symptomatic
The representative samples help establish that the rate of having a #COVID19 infection but not having symptoms is about 40-45%
The longitudinal (serial) assessment helps anchor that rate since 0-10% turned out to convert, with only 1 exception, the Kings County nursing facility
Read 16 tweets

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