So here’s what I think is happening inside Conservative party, Telegraph/Spectator bubble right now.
Whatever their views & whether soft or hard Tory, the penny’s dropped that Johnson is now going down in history as the PM that screwed up Coronavirus & cost thousands of lives...
Whatever their views & whether soft or hard Tory, the penny’s dropped that Johnson is now going down in history as the PM that screwed up Coronavirus & cost thousands of lives...
2/
As realisation dawns, no one thinks he can lead Tories into next election - but he has 4.5 years still. What to do?
Problem:
if Coronavirus 2nd wave just as bad there’s logic to letting Boris stay otherwise his successor gets tainted too. Also no deal Brexit will be bad too.
As realisation dawns, no one thinks he can lead Tories into next election - but he has 4.5 years still. What to do?
Problem:
if Coronavirus 2nd wave just as bad there’s logic to letting Boris stay otherwise his successor gets tainted too. Also no deal Brexit will be bad too.
3/
But here’s the problem - nobody decent now wants to be associated with Johnson/Cummings disaster. See Montie’s NS article today. People have no fear as power slips away.
In normal times not so bad - but in a pandemic + potential no deal this risks a vacum in govt.
But here’s the problem - nobody decent now wants to be associated with Johnson/Cummings disaster. See Montie’s NS article today. People have no fear as power slips away.
In normal times not so bad - but in a pandemic + potential no deal this risks a vacum in govt.
4/
So while Johnson is not under immediate threat everyone waits to see what happens in autumn - & here’s where it gets horrible..
Cynically, Johnson successors have an interest in economy growing but less incentive to save lives than other govt’s as Johnson will take the fall.
So while Johnson is not under immediate threat everyone waits to see what happens in autumn - & here’s where it gets horrible..
Cynically, Johnson successors have an interest in economy growing but less incentive to save lives than other govt’s as Johnson will take the fall.
5/
This i think partially explains the utter vacum in UK govt right now.
Johnson will take the fall but ministers & chalengers want a growing economy to ensure re-election. But who is actually in charge of seeing Coronavirus suppressed?
This i think partially explains the utter vacum in UK govt right now.
Johnson will take the fall but ministers & chalengers want a growing economy to ensure re-election. But who is actually in charge of seeing Coronavirus suppressed?
6/
Next problem:
No deal Brexiters will keep Johnson if he brings no deal
Pro extension/soft dealers will keep Johnson if he helps them
You see the problem?
Johnson cannot have a clear Brexit policy as he’s now too weak - which means he’s now exactly where Theresa May was..
Next problem:
No deal Brexiters will keep Johnson if he brings no deal
Pro extension/soft dealers will keep Johnson if he helps them
You see the problem?
Johnson cannot have a clear Brexit policy as he’s now too weak - which means he’s now exactly where Theresa May was..
8/
And this is where it gets wierd..
..the longer Johnson hides his Brexit “policy” the longer he survives. Like May it’s his only chance now.
So no one will know even in October. Then in November he has to pull something out the hat.
And at that moment all hell breaks loose.
And this is where it gets wierd..
..the longer Johnson hides his Brexit “policy” the longer he survives. Like May it’s his only chance now.
So no one will know even in October. Then in November he has to pull something out the hat.
And at that moment all hell breaks loose.
9/
Next problem:
Who’s working no on the trade deal agreement if Boris not trusting anyone?
Frost? Cummings?
The civil service know Boris a goner, nobody else knows what’s going on (this also confirmed by ministers)
So the person in charge is barely surviving & on way out.
Next problem:
Who’s working no on the trade deal agreement if Boris not trusting anyone?
Frost? Cummings?
The civil service know Boris a goner, nobody else knows what’s going on (this also confirmed by ministers)
So the person in charge is barely surviving & on way out.
Mea culpa here.
The next general election is actually not 4.5 years away but in just under 4 years. (But Potentially earlier if triggered).
Was originally counting from December and horribly mangled the tweet.
The next general election is actually not 4.5 years away but in just under 4 years. (But Potentially earlier if triggered).
Was originally counting from December and horribly mangled the tweet.
