Thread by @DrTomFrieden

THREAD: Cases, tests, models, estimates of trends—indicators lots of people are tracking closely. But they don't tell us much. Focusing on them endangers our efforts to control Covid.

There's far too much amateur epidemiology out there. Deaths, hospitalizations, and diagnosed cases are just part of the iceberg.

Let’s focus on the RIGHT questions.

Are we reducing the number of unlinked infections? Unlinked infections indicate that the contact tracing process is failing and there is community spread.

Are we testing/isolating patients quickly? Testing the right people at the right time and isolating them quickly will halt spread. Every day of delay means more spread: there should be no more than three days from symptom onset to isolation.

Are we finding and quarantining contacts? If all cases arise among known and quarantined contacts of Covid patients rather than in the community, spread of the disease stops.

Are we protecting health care workers? It's essential to better protect the people willing to risk their own health for the health of others. Doing so will improve care of both Covid and other health problems and increase confidence so people in need of care don’t avoid it.

Do we know where and how the virus is spreading in each community? If so, we can effectively target interventions. The goal of field epidemiologists is to discover patterns of transmission and control outbreaks.

Focusing on the questions that matter, rather than indicators that have little meaning and less use, such as cases, tests, estimates of trends, and models, will help us better understand spread of the virus, save lives, and restore livelihoods faster. wapo.st/3dRZ9vT

Demand your state and community report data on these indicators weekly:

➡️ Number of unlinked infections
➡️ Percentage of cases isolated within 3 days of symptom onset
➡️ Percentage of cases among quarantined contacts
➡️ Number of health care worker infections