1/11 I wish CDC would review this on regular media briefings but since they aren’t being allowed to, for 3rd week in a row I will summarize what I see as the most important findings of #Covid-View - the single best source of information on the pandemic. bit.ly/30Fj11C
2/11 Good news first. Deaths continue to decline, athough not to baseline yet. But remember, even at baseline there could be hundreds of people killed each day by #COVID19 Covid. These are trends on the basis of large denominators. 
3/11 Flu and flu-like activity are just about gone, as expected by now. Flu continues to circulate at low levels over the summer, too low to be picked up by most surveillance systems. We need to track Covid-like illness as an early warning.
4/11 For past month, proportion of kids testing positive for the virus has been higher than any other age group.(Similar trends in public health and hospital labs.) More investigation needed, but the most likely possibility is that this reflects infection of kids in households.
5/11 How many communities are offering people with Covid infection alternative, appealing housing? Not enough. Kids getting infected is concerning, but parents and grandparents are at risk of death if infected by a household member.
6/11 Now the most concerning trend. For the first time since tracking began, test positivity rates are increasing. This is bad news. In the face of stable or increasing testing (see: covidtracking.com/data/us-daily), this suggests that spread has been increasing for a least a week.
7/11 I explain why focus on number of cases, tests, or test positivity is misguided. Anyone can have great epidemiologic insights. But you’d rather have heart surgery by someone with training and experience. I trust folks who’ve controlled epidemics before wapo.st/2B1GaAt
8/11 Which states have: 1. Increasing cases, 2 Increasing test positivity, 3. Stable or increasing test numbers, 4. Large numbers of cases? AZ, TX, NC, FL followed by SC, AK. Continued increases likely, unfortunately. Excellent website to track trends: bit.ly/2AyAQET
9/11 Take Arizona (alphabetically). Cases AND test positivity have more than doubled. Test positivity is very high. Number of tests has increased. This is not the kind of streak you want. This is NOT from more testing, it’s from more spread.
10/11 Good data dashboard: bit.ly/2ztrqKq. Sadly, increase in deaths is inevitable. Can be calculated with spreadsheet from @ResolveTSL: bit.ly/2MRRa6t. Spreadsheet of deaths foretold: Likely at least 850 more #COVID19 deaths in Arizona in next 30 days.
11/11 Great field epidemiology can find where spread happening & how to stop it with minimal negative economic impact, saving lives & livelihoods. That requires being guided by & supporting public health. Public health isn’t blocking economic recovery, it IS the road to recovery.
