0/ On creating monsters.
A thread on market sizing - part II.
Sometimes words have unintended consequences. On a thread on estimating #marketsize for #startups I picked up sizing fresh produce in Karachi.
Here are some more thoughts and qualifiers.
A thread on market sizing - part II.
Sometimes words have unintended consequences. On a thread on estimating #marketsize for #startups I picked up sizing fresh produce in Karachi.
Here are some more thoughts and qualifiers.
1/ One word. Don't.
Just because a large market exist doesn’t mean that you should try and tackle it. Even if it is USD18 billion in size.
Great ideas and markets need to pass a few tests before you spend a few years of your live trying to make them work.
Just because a large market exist doesn’t mean that you should try and tackle it. Even if it is USD18 billion in size.
Great ideas and markets need to pass a few tests before you spend a few years of your live trying to make them work.
2/ A second look on fresh produce in Karachi.
I am not a fan of the fresh produce market. Admittedly it looks attractive because of its size. It isn’t.
It is a terrible market. The big issues are operational complexity, credit and cold chain.
I am not a fan of the fresh produce market. Admittedly it looks attractive because of its size. It isn’t.
It is a terrible market. The big issues are operational complexity, credit and cold chain.
3/ Why not?
Produce is perishable. The logistics of moving fresh produce in Pakistan is an operational nightmare.
Logistics needs to be retrained to handle with care. Outsourcing delivery out to partners doesn’t always work. Damage + wastage is a recurring challenge.
Produce is perishable. The logistics of moving fresh produce in Pakistan is an operational nightmare.
Logistics needs to be retrained to handle with care. Outsourcing delivery out to partners doesn’t always work. Damage + wastage is a recurring challenge.
4/ Let me count the ways.
Break even point is higher because of investment in cold chain and processing infrastructure.
Keeping customer happy and satisfied is another battle.
The b2b side is riddled with credit and collection issues.
Break even point is higher because of investment in cold chain and processing infrastructure.
Keeping customer happy and satisfied is another battle.
The b2b side is riddled with credit and collection issues.
5/ If you really want to.
You need an infinite amount of patience, high threshold for bearing pain and capital to make it work.
If you can, kudos to you. I don't think I can. I won't recommend it.
You need an infinite amount of patience, high threshold for bearing pain and capital to make it work.
If you can, kudos to you. I don't think I can. I won't recommend it.
6/ Not related, but..
In moments of weakness 4 years ago I planted 200 lemon and red papaya trees in my home and my office lawn.
With lemons trading at Rs.600 per kg and a typical tree yielding 20+ kgs a month, I thought a small orchard of 10 trees would set me up for life.
In moments of weakness 4 years ago I planted 200 lemon and red papaya trees in my home and my office lawn.
With lemons trading at Rs.600 per kg and a typical tree yielding 20+ kgs a month, I thought a small orchard of 10 trees would set me up for life.
7/ Heartbreak hotel.
Of the 200 trees/saplings planted over 4 years, today only 4 remain. It was a massacre.
That is just the growing part of the chain. I am still buying lemons from the subziwala
Of the 200 trees/saplings planted over 4 years, today only 4 remain. It was a massacre.
That is just the growing part of the chain. I am still buying lemons from the subziwala
8/ On Data.
The second issue is with data.
I don't have an issue with quoting data from external parties. I have an issue with us founders not owning it.
@durre_nayab_ paper on middle class sizing shows you the methodology + math. Understand, quote it and cite it.
The second issue is with data.
I don't have an issue with quoting data from external parties. I have an issue with us founders not owning it.
@durre_nayab_ paper on middle class sizing shows you the methodology + math. Understand, quote it and cite it.
9/ What is the big deal
My issue is with quoting "IDG's e-learning is an 800 billion dollar market" without understanding where or how that number came about.
Not all of that is relevant to your model, addressable or reachable by your team or serviceable by your business.
My issue is with quoting "IDG's e-learning is an 800 billion dollar market" without understanding where or how that number came about.
Not all of that is relevant to your model, addressable or reachable by your team or serviceable by your business.
10/ Quote what is relevant.
By quoting what is relevant you immediately stand out as a founder.
"I respect your intelligence" is the message you send out by doing the ground work yourself and not quoting the World bank, IMF, IFC, ADB, CIO or IDG
By quoting what is relevant you immediately stand out as a founder.
"I respect your intelligence" is the message you send out by doing the ground work yourself and not quoting the World bank, IMF, IFC, ADB, CIO or IDG
11/ More qualifications
I am just a humble teacher and serial failure. I have been wrong more times in my life than I have been right.
My opinion is just that. My opinion. It may not necessarily be right.
Your path and mileage is going to be different and richer than mine.
I am just a humble teacher and serial failure. I have been wrong more times in my life than I have been right.
My opinion is just that. My opinion. It may not necessarily be right.
Your path and mileage is going to be different and richer than mine.
12/ And now for some poetry.
As a student rightly said to me a decade ago.
We are smarter than you are. Just because you failed doesn't mean we will too.
So in that spirit, words by Dylan...
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
As a student rightly said to me a decade ago.
We are smarter than you are. Just because you failed doesn't mean we will too.
So in that spirit, words by Dylan...
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
13/ A thread on a thread
More qualifications and notes on the #marketsizing thread for #founders and #startups
@MaroofAliSyed
@faizansiddiqi
@TalhaIzhar
@alinawab
@kayzafar
@jehan_ara
More qualifications and notes on the #marketsizing thread for #founders and #startups
@MaroofAliSyed
@faizansiddiqi
@TalhaIzhar
@alinawab
@kayzafar
@jehan_ara
@Junaidmumtaz @waleedzeb @chbilaal did another thread of comments and qualifiers based on your comments.
Thank you for your reactions and comments.
Thank you for your reactions and comments.
Here is the original thread on market sizing
