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Update on local patterns in COVID19 deaths.

Albany GA has highest metro death rate. New Orleans almost 2x New York.

Based on New York Times counts through March 31. Raw data here: github.com/nytimes/covid-…

1/
Death rates highest in urban counties of large metros. Still true when New York City excluded.

2/
Regression on deaths per capita now includes county average temperature and precipitation.

COVID19 deaths higher in places that are more dense, colder, and wetter. Higher where population is older, too.

3/
For temperature and precipitation, I used March averages for 2000-2019 since 2020 actuals not available yet. Results very similar using February 2020 actuals.

4/
"Hospitality jobs" is the share of local employment (County Business Patterns 2017) in food/hotel/air-travel/recreation (NAICS 71, 72, 481). Includes travel destinations & entertainment centers.

5/
Similar results excluding New York City -- though density weaker than before.

6/
That's it for now -- please suggest improvements & additions for future updates.

7/end
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More from @JedKolko see all

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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Alright everyone who just bought a ton of groceries and might not be used to planning and prepping most meals: I shop and cook this way all the time.

Some personal tips for saving time, not wasting food, and not getting bored with home meals.

1/
Cooked vegetables often stay longer than fresh. Cook down piles of sliced mushrooms, or greens, or onions, with some salt and olive oil. They'll stay good in your fridge for a week or two and can be used as ingredients in lots of things.

2/
Freeze things. Chop up several bunches of scallions; chop up peeled garlic; chop up fresh hot peppers -- all these can go in freezer bags and then you take what you need.
Freeze broth, heavy cream, or coconut milk in ice cube trays so you have small amounts on hand.

3/
Read 9 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
A short thread on the "urban" vote in the Democratic primary.

Start with this: Biden leads in the popular vote everywhere EXCEPT the urban (central) counties of large metros.

hiringlab.org/2020/03/04/pri…

1/
Seen another way: relative to all other candidates, Biden's vote skews LEAST urban. Here's the correlation of each candidate's share with population density, at the county level

Sanders 0.46
Warren 0.45
Buttigieg 0.02
Bloomberg 0.00
Klobuchar -0.14
Biden -0.34

2/
Note: those correlations include only states where the candidate competed; are weighted by total county vote; and use tract-weighted county density (of course!).

3/
Read 7 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
A very short niche thread on the annual benchmark revision to employment, coming on Friday.

1/
While it’s already known that employment is likely to be revised significantly downward through March 2019, there’s some question about later revisions. QCEW data, the basis for benchmark revisions, can help.

2/
QCEW data shows slower employment growth for 2019 Q2 than the jobs report did. Note that I’m comparing seasonally adjusted jobs report (CES) data with my own seasonal adjustment of QCEW data.

3/
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Adam Sacarny
@asacarny
i have updated my CMS hospital cost report (HCRIS) data and processing code. it's now much more up to date, and it includes data on ICU and other critical care beds potentially relevant for #COVID19 work. 2000-2019 data here: github.com/asacarny/hospi…
the update adds variables for beds in:
- intensive care unit
- coronary care unit
- burn intensive care unit
- surgical intensive care unit
- other special care unit
adult+pediatric+neonatal beds are not disaggregated, but pediatric+neonatal beds are mostly in special care unit.
as i learned, though these variables show up on just one line in the *image* of the cost report, they can actually appear on multiple lines in data & must be summed together. if you want to extract e.g. bed days, make sure to check all lines. see hcris.do on github
Read 5 tweets
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Hazel Hayes
@TheHazelHayes
Here’s the thing. Years and years of fake news and sensationalist journalism and people panicking over dumb shit on Twitter made me think everyone was overreacting about Coronavirus and that I just needed to be cautious and sensible when going out. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
Living in the UK, where nothing was being done about it, reinforced my belief that it wasn’t a big deal. But I’ve since remembered that the UK government are absolute idiots, so that argument doesn’t work anymore. I mean we’re talking about Boris fucking Johnson here.
Also, as someone with anxiety, I have to filter the news a little bit, and take it in small doses and with a large pinch of salt. So I don’t have a ton of news apps on my phone and wasn’t seeing the full extent of the crisis elsewhere. However, I was quietly keeping an eye on it.
Read 18 tweets
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Anand Ranganathan
@ARanganathan72
Demographic breakdown by Age for India and Italy, and Death Rate by Age for #COVID19.
#CoVID19

Global Case Fatality Rate (CFR): 3.5%
[(3800 deaths / 110,000 confirmed cases) X 100]

1. CFR will come down as more people are tested.
2. Unlike flu, CoVID19 has to be tested. Millions may have it but recover without having gotten tested, i.e. CFR may be inflated.
As PM @narendramodi said: "Say no to panic, say yes to precaution".

My views on #CoronavirusPandemic, on @TimesNow with @PadmajaJoshi. Please do watch. #IndiaQuarantinesCorona
Read 53 tweets
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Augie Ray
@augieray
The problem of incompentent leaders isn't that they create urgent problems--even bad leaders can lead in good times. The real danger is in times of challenge, when decisions & actions matter. The COVID-19 coronavirus is about to show us the dangers of Trump's incompetence, IMO.
Despite what @realdonaldtrump said, he took office in good times. Most economic indicators were trending well & changed little since '16. He inherited a 7-year bull market & it continues. With times good & competent people in the gov't, Trump's incompetence hasn't stung--yet.
To be sure, Trump made poor decisions that will hurt many in the long-run, but mostly his decisions hurt few immediately. (Sadly, the people he most hurt are ones too few care about--those who can't afford healthcare, who rely food assistance, Puerto Ricans & immigrants.)
Read 21 tweets
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c-lightning, commits of
@clightningcomit
it’s 2020, let’s start the new year with a long thread:
one like = one fact about or feature of c-lightning dev (max 100)
1/ a handy way to see all the configuration options for c-lightning is by running `lightningd --help`
2/ for all the available commands, try `lightning-cli help`
Read 110 tweets
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Antonio Regalado
@antonioregalado
Here is Thermo Fisher statement on ending sales of "our human identification technology in the Xinjiang region" .. i.e. as part of China DNA surveillance of an ethnic minority.

This statement is very weak both in its wording and the specific action (1/3)
(2/2) Thermo's sales in China well known. Reacting to scrutiny in a New York Times aritcle of this week. Summary here: technologyreview.com/the-download/6…
(3/3) I don't know that Thermo can take a broad stand against relationship profiling, including ethnic, since that is inherent to what DNA is, and West uses for same in some cases? I think there is a database somewhere of the DNA of "terrorists" and their family members.
Read 3 tweets

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