Thread by @39Magilla

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor That is the Po river watershed. It would be nice to have a better source for the map. I'll try to identify cities and towns from it.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor I've zoomed, sharpened and darkened it a bit.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor This is a much better map and sequence.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor Same source but better yet:
pnas.org/content/117/19…

static-movie-usa.glencoesoftware.com/webm/10.1073/8…

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (1) The early outbreak in Italy seems to start on the mountain ridge between Milan and Genoa.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (2) Next it spreads contiguously thru the Po river valley toward the land between Bergamo and Brescia.

Milan is also risingalong with land downstream on the Po.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (3) By day 20, it has intensified, especially near the Po river.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (4) By day 24 the region has spread again, and runs from Turin to Verona. The region North of Genoa has intensified also.

There has been a second epicenter near Rimini in San Marino, which has intensified, but hasn't spread much.

Rome and Naples seem unscathed.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (5) By day 28 the Po River watershed is orange and red. The virus has also spread down the west coast from Genoa thru Pisa.

The secondary epicenter is also spreading on the east side of the Apennines.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (6) Here are first 18 days in Proof Sheet form.

The primary epicenter between Milan and Genoa slowly grows.

A secondary epicenter forms in Rimini. The primary epicenter spreads within the Po river watershed.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (7) Here's days 13 thru 30. The first row is repeated from the last figure.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (8) March 2nd Weather report for Milan leading up to the outbreak:

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (9) Another March 2nd weather report for Northern Italy.

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (10) The rains in Northern Italy preceded the rapid rise of Confirmed Cases by 5d (2-14d).

@SJR78354712 @Daniilgor (11) Key Takeaways:

Progression of #coronavirus in Northern Italy did not clearly follow a downstream direction in the greater Po watershed; other transmission vectors important to diffusion of virus.

March Rainstorms may have played a role in initial super-spreading.