1/24 CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE: why ZanuPF must go
Initially I had intended this to be an article. But concerns shared with me via DM about downloading issues, and the convenience of a focused and tweet-specific duscussion & debate, persuaded me to do a thread, as I have done before!
Initially I had intended this to be an article. But concerns shared with me via DM about downloading issues, and the convenience of a focused and tweet-specific duscussion & debate, persuaded me to do a thread, as I have done before!
2/24 While some may see ZanuPF as a political party, it has never been one. I did not have this view before 2000, but since then I have come to understand that ZanuPF is a system or culture steeped in the military; with a tainted history, a troubled present, with no future!
3/24 The fact that ZanuPF is not, and I would say has never been, a political party, in the traditional sense of the term, has far reaching implications on why it must go. Before developing this further, some preliminaries on important assumptions underlying this intervention!
4/24 The bane of public discourse in Zimbabwe is that it's impossible to know what's going on from the media. There's no investigative journalism. All there is are ocassional leaks, which are by definition incomplete stories. The advent of the social media has not improved this!
5/24 The dearth of investigative journalism & the prevalence of uninformed generic commentary, explain why the discussion on why ZanuPF must go has not gone beyond a hashtag. It's torture to get news or commentary that does not answer the what, who, where, how & when questions!
6/24 My two key assumptions:
1. It's a fundamental sociological tenet that society does not wait to be interpreted: it always self-interprets; hence theory must follow practice and;
2. The narrative of what is to be done is best anchored on what is there, not what could be there!
1. It's a fundamental sociological tenet that society does not wait to be interpreted: it always self-interprets; hence theory must follow practice and;
2. The narrative of what is to be done is best anchored on what is there, not what could be there!
7/24 When I reexamined the subtitle, "why ZanuPF must go", on the back of the view of ZanuPF as a system & culture, it became clear that it should be: "why ZanuPF has gone". The ZanuPF system or culture has disintegrated physically & hegemonically. What remains is its caricature!
8/24 The crisis in Zimbabwe today is from the fact that, while ZanuPF has physically & hegemonically collapsed, the military which was embedded in ZanuPF since the 1975 Mgagao Declaration, staged a coup in 2017 to seize ZanuPF; thinking it was a going concern when it was debris!
9/24 As shown below, from the military's "coup minutes" written on 15 &16 Nov 2017, out of 7 coup demands made by General Chiwenga to President Mugabe 6 were about ZanuPF & the 7th was about tenure interests of the commanders. Nothing for the military, government or the people!
10/24 What has the 2017 military's takeover of ZanuPF meant, politically? As I show in Excelgate, the first effect was for the military to grab @ZECzim & to run it from Defence House; and for ZDF's Africom Zim to run ZEC & CIO's election computers to win the 2018 poll as ZanuPF!
11/24 The second effect of the military's control of @ZECzim from Defence House between Nov 2017 & Aug 2018, while also managing the ZanuPF Commissariat, was to render ZanuPF politicians superfluous & to emasculate party structures; as Defence House became the de facto ZanuPF HQ!
12/24 The third effect of the military's 2017 takeover of ZanuPF was that General Chiwenga became the most influential politician in ZanuPF & in Zim. He campaigned for all ZanuPF parliamentary candidates; not by his eloquence but his feared presence as the man who ousted Mugabe!
13/24 Key to General Chiwenga's political influence in ZanuPF & in Zim were neither ZanuPF politicians nor structures but exZanla commanders & excombatants such as General Martin Chedondo, General Engelbert Rugeje, General Anselem Sanyatwe & General Douglas Nyikayaramba & others!
14/24 Even with the rise of exZipra commanders to the apex of ZDF, the core of ZDF, the ZNA, is now not only under an exZanla commander but also a gukurahundist, Edzai Chimonyo, who infamously defended atrocities by saying: "Some call us murderers but our role is quite clear"!
15/24 The fourth & most concerning effect of ZanuPF's takeover by the military is that its quest to seize ZanuPF without improving military, govt or public affairs, has enabled Mnangagwa, his family, clan & cronies to fill the void in govt by engaging in unprecedented corruption!
16/24 The fifth & most significant effect of the Nov 2017 military takeover of ZanuPF is that for the first time since 1980, an exZipra commander & thus Zapu cadre, General PV Sibanda, assumed the command of ZDF as CDF. This feat would not have happened under President Mugabe!
17/24 The rise of an exZipra commander General PV Sibanda, to be CDF of ZDF could trailblaze a new military trajectory with potentially positive spillovers for Zim politics. Notably, his rise was made possible by the fact that exZipra commanders led the military side of the coup!
18/24 The post military coup setup at ZDF is that its apex has two exZipra commanders: General PV Sibanda who heads ZDF and Air Marshal Elson Moyo, who heads the Air Force and who did not see eye to eye with former boss, Rt Air Marshal Perence Shiri. ExZanla has command of ZNA!
19/24 With General Chiwenga having to contend with troubling health challenges, and doing so remarkably, military influence in politics has shifted from ZanuPF to government; with General @MinisterSBMoyo emerging as the power horse, notwithstanding his own health challenges!
20/24 The most vocal agitators that have declared ZanuPF dead, like @ShingiMunyeza, one of @edmnangagwa's advisors who says his boss is presiding over an evil system based on an occult, are inspired by @MinisterSBMoyo whom they see as the voice of reason in govt, outside ZanuPF!
21/24 Where does ZanuPF's takeover by exZanla commanders & the rise of exZipra commanders to the apex of the ZDF leave things? It's notable that all key exZanla generals have been retired & Rtd General Rugeje has been replaced as ZanuPF Commissar by a taxi driver, Matemadanda!
22/24 Why must ZanuPF go? As I adumbrated upfront, it's not so much that ZanuPF must go but that people must see that it has disintegrated physically & hegemonically as a system or culture; yet its caricature remains & the military is using it for bad things, disguised as ZanuPF!
23/24 The five effects of ZanuPF's takeover by the military necessitate ZanuPF to go & also confirm it's gone but remains a caricature. ZanuPF is no longer viable to exZanla commanders; is not an option for exZipra now in charge of ZDF & was rejected by voters in the 2018 polls!
24/24 What is to be done? The people & the military must find each other. The people embraced the military in Nov 2017. Now the military should make amends & embrace the people by respecting their 2 018 vote for @nelsonchamisa. It's the people who must govern, not the military!
