Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

#COVID19 is bad for international cooperation.

It undermined global health cooperation (see @WHO).

But, as viruses are prone to do, it has "spread" to "infect" other areas of international cooperation.

Let's take a tally of the damage done.

[THREAD]

#COVID19 has three types of effects on international cooperation

- "Zero order" effects

- "First order" effects

- "Second order" effects

A "Zero order" effect is the inability of governments to cooperate in responding to #COVID19

foreignaffairs.com/articles/world…

A "first order" effect is when governments pursue policies explicitly in response to #COVID19 (or, more accurately, using #COVID19 as rhetorical justification) that harm international cooperation, such as USA border wall with Mexico...

time.com/5858294/trump-…

...or USA #COVID19-preventive travel restrictions...

nytimes.com/2020/06/22/us/…

...or other countries responding to #COVID19-preventive travel restrictions

nytimes.com/2020/06/26/wor…

What I really want to talk about are the "second order" effects.

These are when #COVID19 makes it more difficult to cooperate on an issue that had nothing to do with #COVID19.

In many ways, "second order" effects capture a key part of what Robert Keohane and @Joe_Nye referred to as "complex interdependence"

That passage comes from page 24 of their 1977 book, "Power and Interdependence"

What are examples of #COVID19's second order effects?

Example 1: Go back to the Oil Price "war" between Saudi Arabia and Russia

washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…

While the dispute was over maintaining cuts in oil production, the precipitating event was a drop in oil demand due to #COVID19 slowdown in China (and expected for the global economy)

mei.edu/publications/c…

The parties couldn't agree on a cut and the end result was a plummet in oil prices

voxeu.org/article/oil-pr…

I mean, a BIG plummet in oil prices

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1252329119955771392

Example 2: Consider the violent border dispute between India and China

cnn.com/2020/06/16/asi…

The dispute appears to undermine long standing agreements between the two parties regarding the border

economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/c…

What does it have to do with #COVID19?

Well, some maintain that China is taking actions to consolidate territorial claims while the World is distracted by #COVID19

nytimes.com/2020/06/26/int…

Or maybe it's a form of "Diversionary Foreign Policy": distract a public disgruntled over a domestic issue by creating a foreign policy crisis (as in this @AJPS_Editor piece)

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

After all, as @jessicacweiss has shown, the Chinese government is very aware of the interplay between domestic unrest & foreign policy actions
amazon.com/Powerful-Patri…

Others, such as @fravel, argue that the Chinese government's actions are a demonstration of strength after being weakened by #COVID19 criticism: "Facing pressure at home and criticism abroad, China wants to telegraph strength."

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…

Stated differently, one could think of this as a form of "Performative War" (as @ahsanib described in @SecStudies_Jrnl):

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

The goal of such wars is to demonstrate "Resolve" (a topic with a long history, most recently explored by @@ProfLupton)

cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/978150174…

In sum, #COVID19 is wreaking havoc, both directly and indirectly, on international cooperation.

[END]