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The #ADP June payrolls miss (2.4mm vs 3.0mm expected) bodes poorly for tomorrow's #BLS data. This result is almost certainly the effect of PPP monies, that fueled "re-payrolling" in May, starting to run out. We will see more of this in July, as the $512B in PPP has flushed thru.
More to come in July, but there's little chance that we can avoid resumption of layoffs of workers "re-payrolling" by firms needing to get out payroll $s to realize PPP loan forgiveness. PPP sized to eight weeks of support: Not enough. July will be trouble
businessinsider.com/job-loss-layof…
Stay tuned here for the twin jobs witching hour at 8:30am EDT tomorrow, when we get BOTH the #BLS employment situation data for June (survey date June 12th) and initial unemployment claims data for the week ended June 27th. The calendar is key now!
jobqualityindex.com
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Dan Alpert
@DanielAlpert
MARCH 12th - keep that date in mind this morning. We will have lots to talk about regarding the #BLS employment situation report at 8:30am EDT. But remember that the test date for "jobs day" data is the 12th of the month being reported. And March 12 was before the lock downs.>>
>>Consequently, today's Non-farm Payroll data won't come anywhere near reflecting the reality of the #COVID19 pandemic impact.
Nevertheless, will be back at 8:30 and expect to see a material, if early, loss of front line low-wage/low-hours - see why, here: jobqualityindex.com
#BLS #NFP Payrolls decline by 701,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.4. This is just the tip of the iceberg as the reference date for the data is the week ending March 13th, before the social and economic lock downs. But really bad.>>
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Dan Alpert
@DanielAlpert
If I had a $ for each time I have heard MMT used positively over the past month, I could monetize the debt of an average US household! The markets, CEOs and not just a few pols are cutting from "mainstream" economists. My prediction: An epochal change, the likes of 1932 and 1980.
See, for example, this from today:

Rishi Sunak to signal end of austerity with huge leap in borrowing - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac… via @FT
And, you might see my piece from the weekend as to why this is happening - and should be (in which I never actually refer to MMT - just its essential logic):
businessinsider.com/coronavirus-bo…
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Dan Alpert
@DanielAlpert
#BLS Today's job's report will be the last prior to the launch of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) on November 14th, which will thereafter be updated and released on each "jobs day." #JQI is a collaborative of @Cornell, @cpa_tradereform, @UMKC and @GISP_Tweets,>>
>and tracks shifts in job quality related to relative levels of weekly income (wages times hours) on a real time basis from month to month. The JQI reveals is three decades of astonishing job quality decline, reflecting a substantial increase in the number of>>
> production and non-supervisory jobs that are below the mean level weekly incomes of all such jobs. In 1990, 52.7% of those jobs fell below the mean – but since then, 63% of all net new job formation has been lower wage/lower hours. >>
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